Stock Price Trends

Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC)

we are spirit realty capital, inc. (nyse: src), a publicly traded triple net lease real estate investment trust (reit) — one of the largest in the country. our gross real estate investment portfolio is approximately $8.2 b, with investments in over 2,600 properties leased to more than 430 tenants in 30 different industries across 49 states. our clients range from well-known retail brands to special-use, office and industrial facilities. founded in 2003, spirit has a proven growth strategy with a track record of creating value even in challenging economic cycles. we apply time-tested investment and portfolio strategies that employ data analysis to monitor industry trends and manage risk. keeping up with key real estate metrics allows us to offer some of the most attractive rates in the country. we have the flexibility to structure leases to meet the needs of our tenants. we are a premier reit in the dallas metro area and one of only two non-mortgage publicly traded reits headquartered i

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.94% per annum.
  • SRC price at the close of January 22, 2024 was $42.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.76 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 252.17% per annum.
  • SRC price at the close of January 22, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.89 (6.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

April 21, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.94% per annum.
  • SRC price at the close of January 22, 2024 was $42.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.76 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

January 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 252.17% per annum.
  • SRC price at the close of January 22, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.89 (6.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.