AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
AptarGroup, Inc. offers a range of packaging, dispensing and sealing solutions primarily for the beauty, personal care, home care, prescription drug, consumer health care, injectables, and food and beverage markets. The company is headquartered in Crystal Lake, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.70% per annum.
- ATR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $150.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.84 (6.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- ATR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.69 (1.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: February 6, 2025
a = 4.0946
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.85%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0946 + 0.0006 × 770 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.6254)
= $102.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0946 + 0.0006 × 770 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.4612)
= $86.59
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0946 + 0.0006 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.1924)
= $179.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0946 + 0.0006 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.0282)
= $152.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.70% per annum.
- ATR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $150.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.84 (6.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 6.9438
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0305
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0305) – 1
= 12.97%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9438 + -0.0011 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(5.2176)
= $184.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9438 + -0.0011 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(5.0957)
= $163.31
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9438 + -0.0011 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(5.0090)
= $149.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9438 + -0.0011 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.8871)
= $132.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- ATR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.69 (1.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.