Community Healthcare Trust Inc (CHCT)
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated is a real estate investment trust that focuses on owning income-generating real estate primarily associated with the provision of outpatient healthcare services in our target submarkets across the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.41% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $24.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.8282
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.31%
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8282 + -0.0009 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.7136)
= $41.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8282 + -0.0009 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.5122)
= $33.52
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8282 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.2585)
= $26.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8282 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.0571)
= $21.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.41% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $24.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.8311
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0298
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0298) – 1
= 12.67%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8311 + -0.0003 × 1,590 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(3.3493)
= $28.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8311 + -0.0003 × 1,590 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(3.2300)
= $25.28
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8311 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(3.2696)
= $26.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8311 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0298)
= Exp(3.1503)
= $23.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.