Community Healthcare Trust Inc (CHCT)
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated is a real estate investment trust that focuses on owning income-generating real estate primarily associated with the provision of outpatient healthcare services in our target submarkets across the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.09% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $26.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (6.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.75% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (1.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.7491
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.42%
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y869)
= Exp(a + b × X869 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7491 + -0.0009 × 1,260 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.7077)
= $40.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y869)
= Exp(a + b × X869 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7491 + -0.0009 × 1,260 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.5137)
= $33.57
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7491 + -0.0009 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.2099)
= $24.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7491 + -0.0009 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.0159)
= $20.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.09% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $26.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (6.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.9107
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.52%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9107 + -0.0004 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(3.3700)
= $29.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9107 + -0.0004 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(3.2171)
= $24.96
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9107 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(3.2472)
= $25.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9107 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(3.0944)
= $22.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.75% per annum.
- CHCT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (1.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.