Sylvamo Corp (SLVM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.07% per annum.
- SLVM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $75.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.49% per annum.
- SLVM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (2.24%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SLVM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.3152
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0553
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0553) – 1
= 24.78%
August 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3152 + 0.0019 × 685 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(3.7367)
= $41.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3152 + 0.0019 × 685 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(3.5154)
= $33.63
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3152 + 0.0019 × 1,037 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.4103)
= $82.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3152 + 0.0019 × 1,037 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.1890)
= $65.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.07% per annum.
- SLVM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $75.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.1737
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.37%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1737 + 0.0001 × 963 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.2970)
= $73.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1737 + 0.0001 × 963 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.1803)
= $65.39
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1737 + 0.0001 × 1,037 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.3020)
= $73.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1737 + 0.0001 × 1,037 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.1853)
= $65.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.49% per annum.
- SLVM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (2.24%).