Stock Price Trends

Sylvamo Corp (SLVM)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.53% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $44.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.92% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SLVM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: August 22, 2025

a = 7.4225

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0396

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.17%

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4225 + -0.0025 × 1,139 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.6007)
= $99.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4225 + -0.0025 × 1,139 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(4.4423)
= $84.97

August 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4225 + -0.0025 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.8621)
= $47.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4225 + -0.0025 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.7037)
= $40.60

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.53% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $44.60 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2025
End date: August 22, 2025

a = 9.8495

b = -0.0043

s = 0.0299

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -78.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.70%

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8495 + -0.0043 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.0365)
= $56.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8495 + -0.0043 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.9169)
= $50.25

August 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8495 + -0.0043 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.8147)
= $45.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8495 + -0.0043 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(3.6952)
= $40.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.92% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.