Stock Price Trends

Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc., a telecommunications company, provides communications services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.23% per annum.
  • TDS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $20.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.29% per annum.
  • TDS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 0.3404

b = 0.0015

s = 0.2421

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2421) – 1
= 163.36%

November 8, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3404 + 0.0015 × 1,198 + 2 × 0.2421)
= Exp(2.6091)
= $13.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3404 + 0.0015 × 1,198 – 2 × 0.2421)
= Exp(1.6407)
= $5.16

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3404 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2421)
= Exp(3.5416)
= $34.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3404 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2421)
= Exp(2.5732)
= $13.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.23% per annum.
  • TDS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $20.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.5216

b = 0.0002

s = 0.1042

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1042) – 1
= 51.71%

August 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5216 + 0.0002 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(3.0509)
= $21.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5216 + 0.0002 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(2.6341)
= $13.93

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5216 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(3.1279)
= $22.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5216 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(2.7111)
= $15.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.29% per annum.
  • TDS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.