Stock Price Trends

Trade Desk Inc (TTD)

Trade Desk, Inc. is a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Ventura, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 165.94% per annum.
  • TTD price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $54.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $203.20 (78.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.98% per annum.
  • TTD price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 0.7223

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0261

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 165.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.01%

September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7223 + 0.0027 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.7163)
= $111.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7223 + 0.0027 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.6119)
= $100.67

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7223 + 0.0027 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.9735)
= $144.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7223 + 0.0027 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.8691)
= $130.21

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 165.94% per annum.
  • TTD price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $54.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $203.20 (78.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: August 29, 2025

a = 8.3569

b = -0.0024

s = 0.2354

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2354) – 1
= 156.39%

September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3569 + -0.0024 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.2354)
= Exp(5.3330)
= $207.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3569 + -0.0024 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.2354)
= Exp(4.3914)
= $80.76

August 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3569 + -0.0024 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.2354)
= Exp(4.4991)
= $89.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3569 + -0.0024 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.2354)
= Exp(3.5575)
= $35.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.98% per annum.
  • TTD price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.