Stock Price Trends

Enact Holdings Inc (ACT)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.48% per annum.
  • ACT price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $41.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (2.95%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.65% per annum.
  • ACT price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2025

a = 3.2203

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0405

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.60%

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2203 + 0.0002 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.5578)
= $35.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2203 + 0.0002 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.3957)
= $29.84

November 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2203 + 0.0002 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.6802)
= $39.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2203 + 0.0002 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.5181)
= $33.72

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.48% per annum.
  • ACT price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $41.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (2.95%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: February 27, 2026

a = 2.7605

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0331

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.15%

December 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7605 + 0.0006 × 1,189 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.5183)
= $33.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y819)
= Exp(a + b × X819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7605 + 0.0006 × 1,189 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.3859)
= $29.55

February 27, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7605 + 0.0006 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.7719)
= $43.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7605 + 0.0006 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.6395)
= $38.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.65% per annum.
  • ACT price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.