NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH)
NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) is a leading provider of private mortgage insurance solutions in the United States, offering risk management options that support home ownership and mortgage lending. Headquartered in Emeryville, California, the company leverages innovative technology and data-driven insights to enhance the efficiency of its services. With a focus on strong underwriting standards and a commitment to customer service, NMI Holdings plays a crucial role in the residential mortgage market, positioning itself for sustained growth amidst evolving economic conditions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.60% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $35.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.16 (24.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.88% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (1.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NMIH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2022
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 2.3986
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.22%
April 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3986 + 0.0009 × 532 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(2.9695)
= $19.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3986 + 0.0009 × 532 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(2.7367)
= $15.44
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3986 + 0.0009 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(3.8137)
= $45.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3986 + 0.0009 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(3.5808)
= $35.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.60% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $35.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.16 (24.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: May 1, 2025
a = 4.3920
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.28%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3920 + -0.0005 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.7848)
= $44.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3920 + -0.0005 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.6169)
= $37.22
May 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3920 + -0.0005 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.6379)
= $38.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3920 + -0.0005 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.4701)
= $32.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.88% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (1.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.