Stock Price Trends

Meta Platforms Inc. (META) 

Meta Platforms, Inc. develops products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, PCs, virtual reality headsets, wearables and home devices around the world. The company is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 152.66% per annum.
  • META price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $499.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.29% per annum.
  • META price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 1.7426

b = 0.0025

s = 0.1298

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 152.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1298) – 1
= 68.09%

September 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7426 + 0.0025 × 1,189 + 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(5.0216)
= $151.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7426 + 0.0025 × 1,189 – 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(4.5022)
= $90.22

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7426 + 0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(6.6367)
= $762.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7426 + 0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(6.1173)
= $453.64

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 152.66% per annum.
  • META price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $499.49 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 6.1955

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0433

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.92%

February 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1955 + 0.0000 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.2687)
= $527.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1955 + 0.0000 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.0954)
= $443.80

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1955 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.2676)
= $527.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1955 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.0943)
= $443.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.29% per annum.
  • META price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.