Stock Price Trends

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) 

Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly named Facebook, Inc., and TheFacebook, Inc., is an American multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other products and services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 170.86% per annum.
  • META price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $473.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 81.51% per annum.
  • META price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $19.34 (4.26%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 1.1461

b = 0.0027

s = 0.1297

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 170.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1297) – 1
= 67.99%

September 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1461 + 0.0027 × 1,315 + 2 × 0.1297)
= Exp(4.9953)
= $147.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1461 + 0.0027 × 1,315 – 2 × 0.1297)
= Exp(4.4766)
= $87.93

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1461 + 0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1297)
= Exp(6.3821)
= $591.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1461 + 0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1297)
= Exp(5.8634)
= $351.91

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 170.86% per annum.
  • META price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $473.32 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 3.0079

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0664

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.43%

April 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0079 + 0.0016 × 1,528 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.6363)
= $280.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0079 + 0.0016 × 1,528 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.3706)
= $214.99

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0079 + 0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(6.1180)
= $453.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0079 + 0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.8524)
= $348.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 81.51% per annum.
  • META price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $19.34 (4.26%).