TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP)
TripAdvisor, Inc. is an online travel company. The company is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.32% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $17.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.02 (29.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.58% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRIP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2021
End date: November 6, 2023
a = 4.3928
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1313) – 1
= 69.07%
January 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3928 + -0.0011 × 529 + 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(4.0680)
= $58.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3928 + -0.0011 × 529 – 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(3.5429)
= $34.57
November 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3928 + -0.0011 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(2.9222)
= $18.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3928 + -0.0011 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(2.3970)
= $10.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.32% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $17.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.02 (29.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 19, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.4484
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1754
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1754) – 1
= 101.68%
November 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4484 + -0.0003 × 844 + 2 × 0.1754)
= Exp(3.5407)
= $34.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4484 + -0.0003 × 844 – 2 × 0.1754)
= Exp(2.8392)
= $17.10
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4484 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1754)
= Exp(3.2406)
= $25.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4484 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1754)
= Exp(2.5391)
= $12.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.58% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.