TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP)
TripAdvisor, Inc. is an online travel company. The company is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 176.66% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $25.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.18% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRIP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = -1.7130
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0721
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 176.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0721) – 1
= 33.45%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7130 + 0.0028 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(2.7833)
= $16.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7130 + 0.0028 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(2.4948)
= $12.12
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7130 + 0.0028 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.5110)
= $33.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7130 + 0.0028 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.2225)
= $25.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 176.66% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $25.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 4.2719
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0282) – 1
= 11.95%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2719 + -0.0005 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.3690)
= $29.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2719 + -0.0005 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.2561)
= $25.95
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2719 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.3245)
= $27.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2719 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(3.2116)
= $24.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.18% per annum.
- TRIP price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.