Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Discover Financial Services is an American financial services company that owns and operates Discover Bank, which offers checking and savings accounts, personal loans, home equity loans, student loans and credit cards. It also owns and operates the Discover and Pulse networks, and owns Diners Club International. Discover is currently headquartered in the Chicago suburb of Riverwoods, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.71% per annum.
- DFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $185.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.86% per annum.
- DFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.92 (10.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DFS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 2.5500
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0692
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0692) – 1
= 31.90%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5500 + 0.0015 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.5274)
= $92.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5500 + 0.0015 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.2505)
= $70.14
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5500 + 0.0015 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.3957)
= $220.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5500 + 0.0015 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.1188)
= $167.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.71% per annum.
- DFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $185.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 21, 2025
a = 10.5350
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0540
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0540) – 1
= 24.12%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5350 + -0.0030 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.4331)
= $228.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5350 + -0.0030 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.2170)
= $184.37
April 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5350 + -0.0030 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(5.1426)
= $171.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5350 + -0.0030 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(4.9265)
= $137.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.86% per annum.
- DFS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $17.92 (10.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.