American Express Company (AXP)
American Express Company (AXP) is a leading global financial services corporation, renowned for its premium charge and credit card products, as well as travel and expense management solutions. Headquartered in New York City, the company operates through key segments including Global Consumer Services, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant Services, catering to a diverse clientele ranging from consumers to small businesses and large corporations. With a strong commitment to innovation and customer service, American Express continues to leverage technology to enhance customer experiences and deliver value through its extensive network of merchants and strategic partnerships.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.15% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of February 23, 2026 was $321.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.67% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of February 23, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.38 (3.42%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: February 11, 2026
a = 4.3668
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.10%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0009 × 574 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.0393)
= $154.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0009 × 574 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.6879)
= $108.63
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0009 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(6.1117)
= $451.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3668 + 0.0009 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.7603)
= $317.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.15% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of February 23, 2026 was $321.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2025
End date: February 20, 2026
a = 8.6220
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.94%
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6220 + -0.0015 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.9869)
= $398.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6220 + -0.0015 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.9198)
= $372.33
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6220 + -0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.8787)
= $357.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6220 + -0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.8116)
= $334.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.67% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of February 23, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.38 (3.42%).