American Express Company (AXP)
The American Express Company is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered at 200 Vesey Street in the Battery Park City neighborhood of Lower Manhattan in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.74% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $240.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.99 (6.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.24% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2023
End date: June 4, 2024
a = 1.7278
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0469
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 118.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0469) – 1
= 20.64%
September 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7278 + 0.0021 × 1,503 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(5.0447)
= $155.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7278 + 0.0021 × 1,503 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(4.8571)
= $128.65
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7278 + 0.0021 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(5.6280)
= $278.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7278 + 0.0021 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(5.4404)
= $230.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.74% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $240.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.99 (6.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.0963
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.29%
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0963 + 0.0008 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.4182)
= $225.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0963 + 0.0008 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.3112)
= $202.60
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0963 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.5476)
= $256.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0963 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.4406)
= $230.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.24% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.