American Express Company (AXP)
The American Express Company is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered at 200 Vesey Street in the Battery Park City neighborhood of Lower Manhattan in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.62% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $267.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.41 (9.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.30% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.34 (4.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2023
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 3.5926
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0720
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0720) – 1
= 33.37%
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5926 + 0.0012 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(5.0751)
= $159.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5926 + 0.0012 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(4.7872)
= $119.96
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5926 + 0.0012 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(5.9097)
= $368.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5926 + 0.0012 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(5.6218)
= $276.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.62% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $267.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.41 (9.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 11.2143
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -68.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.67%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2143 + -0.0031 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.8751)
= $356.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2143 + -0.0031 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.7209)
= $305.18
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2143 + -0.0031 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.5698)
= $262.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2143 + -0.0031 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.4156)
= $224.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.30% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.34 (4.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.