UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $295.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $163.04 (35.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.71% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.1388
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.46%
December 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 559 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.2626)
= $524.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 559 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.0682)
= $431.89
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.3078)
= $548.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $295.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $163.04 (35.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2025
End date: May 23, 2025
a = 34.7902
b = -0.0160
s = 0.0763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0160) – 1
= -99.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.69%
April 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.5265)
= $683.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.2214)
= $503.39
May 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.8073)
= $332.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.5022)
= $245.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.71% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.