UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $409.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $48.86 (10.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.51% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.62 (6.11%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.1376
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.46%
December 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1376 + 0.0000 × 585 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.2626)
= $524.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1376 + 0.0000 × 585 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.0682)
= $431.89
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1376 + 0.0000 × 1,537 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.3078)
= $548.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1376 + 0.0000 × 1,537 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $409.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $48.86 (10.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 7.7811
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.94%
August 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7811 + -0.0009 × 1,566 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.4957)
= $662.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7811 + -0.0009 × 1,566 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.3056)
= $547.64
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7811 + -0.0009 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.2956)
= $542.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7811 + -0.0009 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(6.1055)
= $448.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.51% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.62 (6.11%).