Stock Price Trends

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) 

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $295.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $163.04 (35.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.71% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024

a = 6.1388

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0486

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.46%

December 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 559 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.2626)
= $524.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 559 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.0682)
= $431.89

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.3078)
= $548.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1388 + 0.0000 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $295.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $163.04 (35.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 8, 2025
End date: May 23, 2025

a = 34.7902

b = -0.0160

s = 0.0763

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0160) – 1
= -99.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.69%

April 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.5265)
= $683.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.2214)
= $503.39

May 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.8073)
= $332.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(34.7902 + -0.0160 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.5022)
= $245.22

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.71% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of May 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.