UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $495.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.13% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2021
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 6.1299
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 1.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.13%
December 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1299 + 0.0001 × 954 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.2802)
= $533.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1299 + 0.0001 × 954 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.0803)
= $437.18
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1299 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.3262)
= $559.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1299 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(6.1263)
= $457.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $495.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 7.8059
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.36%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8059 + -0.0009 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.3681)
= $582.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8059 + -0.0009 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.2516)
= $518.85
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8059 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.2134)
= $499.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8059 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.0969)
= $444.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.13% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.