Stock Price Trends

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is a leading American multinational managed healthcare and insurance company headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota. As of 2020, it stands as the largest insurance company by net premiums and the second-largest healthcare company by revenue, generating $257.1 billion. The company operates primarily through its UnitedHealthcare division, which accounts for approximately 80% of its total revenue. With a diversified portfolio of health care products and services, UnitedHealth Group is well positioned to capitalize on the evolving healthcare landscape and continues to innovate in areas such as digital health and telemedicine.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $340.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.54% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of January 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: December 31, 2025

a = 8.3587

b = -0.0015

s = 0.1480

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1480) – 1
= 80.79%

July 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3587 + -0.0015 × 1,280 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(6.7310)
= $838.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3587 + -0.0015 × 1,280 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(6.1389)
= $463.53

December 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3587 + -0.0015 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.9299)
= $376.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3587 + -0.0015 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.3378)
= $208.05

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $340.51 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 13, 2025
End date: January 12, 2026

a = 4.3303

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0788

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.03%

May 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3303 + 0.0008 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(5.8050)
= $331.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3303 + 0.0008 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(5.4900)
= $242.26

January 12, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3303 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(6.0083)
= $406.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3303 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(5.6933)
= $296.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.54% per annum.
  • UNH price at the close of January 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.