UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services. In 2020, it was the second-largest healthcare company (behind CVS Health) by revenue with $257.1 billion, and the largest insurance company by net premiums. UnitedHealthcare revenues comprise 80% of the Group's overall revenue.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.69% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $559.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.53 (0.82%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 473.64% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2021
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.1382
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.41%
December 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1382 + 0.0000 × 866 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(6.2751)
= $531.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1382 + 0.0000 × 866 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(6.0811)
= $437.51
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1382 + 0.0000 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(6.3188)
= $554.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1382 + 0.0000 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(6.1248)
= $457.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.69% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $559.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.53 (0.82%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -2.4133
b = 0.0048
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 473.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.40%
June 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4133 + 0.0048 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.2115)
= $498.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4133 + 0.0048 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.0858)
= $439.55
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4133 + 0.0048 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.3886)
= $595.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4133 + 0.0048 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.2628)
= $524.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 473.64% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.