Tesla Inc (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company based in Palo Alto, California. Tesla's current products include electric cars, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, as well as other related products and services. In 2020, Tesla had the highest sales in the plug-in and battery electric passenger car segments, capturing 16% of the plug-in market (which includes plug-in hybrids) and 23% of the battery-electric (purely electric) market. Through its subsidiary Tesla Energy, the company develops and is a major installer of solar photovoltaic energy generation systems in the United States. Tesla Energy is also one of the largest global suppliers of battery energy storage systems, with 3 GWh of battery storage supplied in 2020.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.13% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $268.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.12% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $44.66 (14.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2020
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 5.6362
b = -0.0002
s = 0.2119
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2119) – 1
= 133.44%
December 7, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6362 + -0.0002 × 249 + 2 × 0.2119)
= Exp(6.0096)
= $407.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6362 + -0.0002 × 249 – 2 × 0.2119)
= Exp(5.1619)
= $174.50
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.2119)
= Exp(5.7228)
= $305.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6362 + -0.0002 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.2119)
= Exp(4.8751)
= $130.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.13% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $268.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: February 24, 2025
a = 1.6045
b = 0.0024
s = 0.1499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 143.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1499) – 1
= 82.13%
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6045 + 0.0024 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.1499)
= Exp(5.2947)
= $199.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6045 + 0.0024 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.1499)
= Exp(4.6952)
= $109.42
February 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6045 + 0.0024 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.1499)
= Exp(6.2585)
= $522.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6045 + 0.0024 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.1499)
= Exp(5.6590)
= $286.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.12% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $44.66 (14.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.