# Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Tesla, Inc. is an American multinational automotive and energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles, stationary battery energy storage devices from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.89% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $199.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.00% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.52 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of TSLA price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: November 25, 2020

End date: February 16, 2024

a = 5.6776

b = -0.0002

s = 0.2219

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1

= -5.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.2219) – 1

= 142.97%

#### November 25, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{448})

= Exp(a + b × X_{448} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 645 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 645 + 2 × 0.2219)

= Exp(6.0142)

= $409.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{448})

= Exp(a + b × X_{448} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 645 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 645 – 2 × 0.2219)

= Exp(5.1264)

= $168.42

#### February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2219)

= Exp(5.8183)

= $336.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2219)

= Exp(4.9305)

= $138.45

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.89% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $199.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023

End date: February 16, 2024

a = 16.2183

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0463

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1

= -89.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1

= 20.37%

#### December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,215})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,215} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)

= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0463)

= Exp(5.6725)

= $290.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,215})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,215} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)

= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0463)

= Exp(5.4871)

= $241.55

#### February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)

= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0463)

= Exp(5.2854)

= $197.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)

= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0463)

= Exp(5.1000)

= $164.02

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.00% per annum.
- TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.52 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.