Stock Price Trends

Tesla Inc (TSLA) 

Tesla, Inc. is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company based in Palo Alto, California. Tesla's current products include electric cars, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, as well as other related products and services. In 2020, Tesla had the highest sales in the plug-in and battery electric passenger car segments, capturing 16% of the plug-in market (which includes plug-in hybrids) and 23% of the battery-electric (purely electric) market. Through its subsidiary Tesla Energy, the company develops and is a major installer of solar photovoltaic energy generation systems in the United States. Tesla Energy is also one of the largest global suppliers of battery energy storage systems, with 3 GWh of battery storage supplied in 2020.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.91% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $184.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.70% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 7, 2020
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 5.7468

b = -0.0003

s = 0.2166

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2166) – 1
= 137.86%

December 7, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y370)
= Exp(a + b × X370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7468 + -0.0003 × 536 + 2 × 0.2166)
= Exp(6.0430)
= $421.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y370)
= Exp(a + b × X370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7468 + -0.0003 × 536 – 2 × 0.2166)
= Exp(5.1765)
= $177.06

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7468 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2166)
= Exp(5.7135)
= $302.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7468 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2166)
= Exp(4.8470)
= $127.35

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.91% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $184.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 7.7220

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0834

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0834) – 1
= 39.59%

June 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7220 + -0.0014 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(5.8071)
= $332.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7220 + -0.0014 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(5.4736)
= $238.31

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7220 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(5.2759)
= $195.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7220 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(4.9424)
= $140.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.70% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.