Stock Price Trends

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 

Tesla, Inc. is an American multinational automotive and energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles, stationary battery energy storage devices from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.89% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $199.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.00% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.52 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSLA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 25, 2020
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 5.6776

b = -0.0002

s = 0.2219

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2219) – 1
= 142.97%

November 25, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 645 + 2 × 0.2219)
= Exp(6.0142)
= $409.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 645 – 2 × 0.2219)
= Exp(5.1264)
= $168.42

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2219)
= Exp(5.8183)
= $336.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6776 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2219)
= Exp(4.9305)
= $138.45

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.89% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $199.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 16.2183

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0463

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -89.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.37%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(5.6725)
= $290.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(5.4871)
= $241.55

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(5.2854)
= $197.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2183 + -0.0060 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(5.1000)
= $164.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.00% per annum.
  • TSLA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.52 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.