Ford Motor Company (F)
Ford Motor Company, commonly known as Ford, is an American multinational automaker that has its main headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.31% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $12.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.84% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.35 (2.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 3.1866
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1289) – 1
= 67.49%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1866 + -0.0005 × 885 + 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(3.0128)
= $20.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1866 + -0.0005 × 885 – 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(2.4971)
= $12.15
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1866 + -0.0005 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(2.5972)
= $13.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1866 + -0.0005 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.1289)
= Exp(2.0815)
= $8.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.31% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $12.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: April 12, 2024
a = -0.6786
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.55%
October 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6786 + 0.0018 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(2.3670)
= $10.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6786 + 0.0018 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(2.2054)
= $9.07
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6786 + 0.0018 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(2.6717)
= $14.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6786 + 0.0018 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(2.5100)
= $12.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.84% per annum.
- F price at the close of May 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.35 (2.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.