General Motors Company (GM)
General Motors Company (GM) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Detroit, Michigan that designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes vehicles and vehicle parts, and sells financial services, with global headquarters in Detroit's Renaissance Center.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.29% per annum.
- GM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $45.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.72 (34.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 161.28% per annum.
- GM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 13, 2021
End date: December 13, 2023
a = 4.4947
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1158
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1158) – 1
= 58.95%
January 13, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y432)
= Exp(a + b × X432 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4947 + -0.0007 × 625 + 2 × 0.1158)
= Exp(4.3164)
= $74.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y432)
= Exp(a + b × X432 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4947 + -0.0007 × 625 – 2 × 0.1158)
= Exp(3.8530)
= $47.14
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4947 + -0.0007 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.1158)
= Exp(3.6186)
= $37.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4947 + -0.0007 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.1158)
= Exp(3.1552)
= $23.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.29% per annum.
- GM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $45.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.72 (34.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = -0.9643
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 161.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.42%
October 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9643 + 0.0026 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.4166)
= $30.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9643 + 0.0026 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.2224)
= $25.09
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9643 + 0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.9323)
= $51.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9643 + 0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.7382)
= $42.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 161.28% per annum.
- GM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.