NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $137.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.25 (9.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.55% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: November 22, 2024
a = -0.4633
b = 0.0032
s = 0.1359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 217.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1359) – 1
= 72.21%
August 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4633 + 0.0032 × 951 + 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(2.8160)
= $16.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4633 + 0.0032 × 951 – 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(2.2725)
= $9.70
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4633 + 0.0032 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(5.3967)
= $220.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4633 + 0.0032 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.1359)
= Exp(4.8531)
= $128.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 217.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $137.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.25 (9.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 3.2888
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0756
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.30%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2888 + 0.0009 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(4.8861)
= $132.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2888 + 0.0009 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(4.5838)
= $97.89
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2888 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(5.1043)
= $164.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2888 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(4.8020)
= $121.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.55% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.