Stock Price Trends

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 

Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.78% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $141.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $54.67 (27.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.18% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: January 8, 2025

a = 0.3499

b = 0.0029

s = 0.1667

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1667) – 1
= 94.82%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3499 + 0.0029 × 725 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(2.7761)
= $16.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3499 + 0.0029 × 725 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(2.1091)
= $8.24

January 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3499 + 0.0029 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(5.4980)
= $244.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3499 + 0.0029 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(4.8311)
= $125.34

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.78% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $141.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $54.67 (27.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: June 13, 2025

a = 4.7326

b = 0.0001

s = 0.1049

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1049) – 1
= 52.13%

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7326 + 0.0001 × 1,439 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(5.0275)
= $152.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7326 + 0.0001 × 1,439 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.6080)
= $100.28

June 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7326 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(5.0503)
= $156.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7326 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.6308)
= $102.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.18% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.