NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVIDIA Corporation is a leading American multinational technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California, specializing in the design and manufacture of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) primarily for gaming and professional applications. Renowned for its pioneering work in visual computing and AI technologies, NVIDIA also develops System on a Chip (SoC) solutions for mobile computing and automotive sectors, positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in autonomous driving and AI-driven applications. With a robust portfolio that spans across gaming, data centers, and AI infrastructure, NVIDIA continues to drive significant advancements in technology, catering to a rapidly evolving market landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.78% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $181.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $100.24 (35.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.16% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: January 8, 2025
a = 0.7136
b = 0.0029
s = 0.1667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1667) – 1
= 94.83%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7136 + 0.0029 × 599 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(2.7760)
= $16.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y414)
= Exp(a + b × X414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7136 + 0.0029 × 599 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(2.1091)
= $8.24
January 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7136 + 0.0029 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(5.4979)
= $244.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7136 + 0.0029 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(4.8310)
= $125.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.78% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $181.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $100.24 (35.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: October 16, 2025
a = 3.2859
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1338) – 1
= 70.77%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2859 + 0.0010 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.8002)
= $121.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2859 + 0.0010 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.2650)
= $71.17
October 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2859 + 0.0010 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(5.4148)
= $224.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2859 + 0.0010 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.8796)
= $131.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.16% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.