Stock Price Trends

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 

Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.60% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $726.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.13 (13.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.49% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $167.54 (29.99%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: September 8, 2023

a = -0.7147

b = 0.0042

s = 0.0931

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 361.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0931) – 1
= 45.11%

September 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,290 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(4.8772)
= $131.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,290 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(4.5049)
= $90.46

September 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(6.4361)
= $623.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(6.0638)
= $430.00

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.60% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $726.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.13 (13.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: January 9, 2024

a = 4.8524

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0530

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1
= 23.59%

May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(6.1252)
= $457.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(5.9134)
= $369.95

January 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(6.2969)
= $542.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(6.0851)
= $439.26

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.49% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $167.54 (29.99%).