NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.91% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $877.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $269.19 (23.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 159.57% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: September 8, 2023
a = -0.4243
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0931
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 361.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0931) – 1
= 45.10%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4243 + 0.0042 × 1,220 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(4.8764)
= $131.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4243 + 0.0042 × 1,220 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(4.5042)
= $90.39
September 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4243 + 0.0042 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(6.4360)
= $623.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4243 + 0.0042 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0931)
= Exp(6.0637)
= $429.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.91% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $877.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $269.19 (23.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2023
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 1.8893
b = 0.0026
s = 0.1186
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 159.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1186) – 1
= 60.73%
February 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y947)
= Exp(a + b × X947 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8893 + 0.0026 × 1,373 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(5.7146)
= $303.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y947)
= Exp(a + b × X947 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8893 + 0.0026 × 1,373 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(5.2400)
= $188.68
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8893 + 0.0026 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(6.7207)
= $829.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8893 + 0.0026 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(6.2461)
= $516.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 159.57% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.