NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.82% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $116.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.51% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: August 30, 2024
a = -1.0610
b = 0.0033
s = 0.1304
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 234.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1304) – 1
= 68.50%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0610 + 0.0033 × 1,079 + 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(2.7722)
= $15.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0610 + 0.0033 × 1,079 – 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(2.2504)
= $9.49
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0610 + 0.0033 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(5.1891)
= $179.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0610 + 0.0033 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(4.6673)
= $106.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.82% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $116.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 6.7655
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0702
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1
= 32.40%
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7655 + -0.0011 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(4.9805)
= $145.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7655 + -0.0011 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(4.6998)
= $109.93
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7655 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(4.8642)
= $129.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7655 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(4.5835)
= $97.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.51% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.