NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVIDIA Corporation is a leading American multinational technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California, specializing in the design and manufacture of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) primarily for gaming and professional applications. Renowned for its pioneering work in visual computing and AI technologies, NVIDIA also develops System on a Chip (SoC) solutions for mobile computing and automotive sectors, positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in autonomous driving and AI-driven applications. With a robust portfolio that spans across gaming, data centers, and AI infrastructure, NVIDIA continues to drive significant advancements in technology, catering to a rapidly evolving market landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.00% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $190.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2025
End date: February 11, 2026
a = 4.6724
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.90%
July 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6724 + 0.0003 × 1,614 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.2472)
= $190.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6724 + 0.0003 × 1,614 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.0997)
= $163.96
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6724 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.3127)
= $202.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6724 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.1652)
= $175.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.00% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $190.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2025
End date: February 11, 2026
a = 5.8976
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.18%
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8976 + -0.0004 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.3226)
= $204.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8976 + -0.0004 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.1726)
= $176.37
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8976 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.2809)
= $196.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8976 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(5.1309)
= $169.17
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.