NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $109.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $64.15 (37.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.78% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: January 8, 2025
a = 0.2118
b = 0.0029
s = 0.1662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 187.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1662) – 1
= 94.38%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2118 + 0.0029 × 774 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(2.7812)
= $16.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2118 + 0.0029 × 774 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(2.1166)
= $8.30
January 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2118 + 0.0029 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(5.4981)
= $244.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2118 + 0.0029 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.8335)
= $125.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.19% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $109.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $64.15 (37.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 17, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 7.8362
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.60%
October 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8362 + -0.0017 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(5.1438)
= $171.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8362 + -0.0017 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.8923)
= $133.26
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8362 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.8086)
= $122.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8362 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.5571)
= $95.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.78% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.