# NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.60% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $726.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.13 (13.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.49% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $167.54 (29.99%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of NVDA price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2022

End date: September 8, 2023

a = -0.7147

b = 0.0042

s = 0.0931

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1

= 361.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0931) – 1

= 45.11%

#### September 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{892})

= Exp(a + b × X_{892} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,290 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,290 + 2 × 0.0931)

= Exp(4.8772)

= $131.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{892})

= Exp(a + b × X_{892} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,290 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,290 – 2 × 0.0931)

= Exp(4.5049)

= $90.46

#### September 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,147})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,147} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0931)

= Exp(6.4361)

= $623.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,147})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,147} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7147 + 0.0042 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0931)

= Exp(6.0638)

= $430.00

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 361.60% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $726.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.13 (13.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2023

End date: January 9, 2024

a = 4.8524

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0530

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1

= 31.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1

= 23.59%

#### May 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,075})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,075} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0530)

= Exp(6.1252)

= $457.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,075})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,075} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0530)

= Exp(5.9134)

= $369.95

#### January 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,231})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,231} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0530)

= Exp(6.2969)

= $542.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,231})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,231} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.8524 + 0.0007 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0530)

= Exp(6.0851)

= $439.26

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.49% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $167.54 (29.99%).