Qorvo Inc (QRVO)
Qorvo is an American semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and supplies radio-frequency systems for applications that drive wireless and broadband communications, as well as foundry services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.74% per annum.
- QRVO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $96.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.98 (24.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.98% per annum.
- QRVO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QRVO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2020
End date: June 6, 2023
a = 5.8615
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1254
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1254) – 1
= 65.14%
November 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8615 + -0.0010 × 566 + 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.5651)
= $261.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8615 + -0.0010 × 566 – 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(5.0635)
= $158.14
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8615 + -0.0010 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(4.6707)
= $106.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8615 + -0.0010 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.1254)
= Exp(4.1691)
= $64.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.74% per annum.
- QRVO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $96.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.98 (24.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 4.0895
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0712
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0712) – 1
= 32.96%
August 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0895 + 0.0003 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.6340)
= $102.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0895 + 0.0003 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.3492)
= $77.41
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0895 + 0.0003 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.8406)
= $126.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0895 + 0.0003 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.5557)
= $95.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.98% per annum.
- QRVO price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.