Stock Price Trends

Qorvo Inc (QRVO)

Qorvo is an American semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and supplies radio-frequency systems for applications that drive wireless and broadband communications, as well as foundry services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.07% per annum.
  • QRVO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $122.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.63 (66.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
  • QRVO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QRVO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 11, 2020
End date: June 6, 2023

a = 5.7529

b = -0.0009

s = 0.1296

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1296) – 1
= 67.94%

November 11, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7529 + -0.0009 × 471 + 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.5689)
= $262.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7529 + -0.0009 × 471 – 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(5.0505)
= $156.10

June 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7529 + -0.0009 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(4.6872)
= $108.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7529 + -0.0009 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.1296)
= Exp(4.1687)
= $64.63

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.07% per annum.
  • QRVO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $122.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $48.63 (66.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 4.2724

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0795

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0795) – 1
= 37.45%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y724)
= Exp(a + b × X724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2724 + 0.0002 × 1,047 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.6753)
= $107.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y724)
= Exp(a + b × X724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2724 + 0.0002 × 1,047 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.3572)
= $78.04

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2724 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.8563)
= $128.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2724 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.5382)
= $93.52

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
  • QRVO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.