First Solar Inc (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. offers solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions in the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.34% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $177.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.59 (11.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.81% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: March 26, 2024
a = 6.8027
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0737
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0737) – 1
= 34.31%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8027 + -0.0010 × 1,399 + 2 × 0.0737)
= Exp(5.5088)
= $246.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8027 + -0.0010 × 1,399 – 2 × 0.0737)
= Exp(5.2138)
= $183.80
March 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8027 + -0.0010 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0737)
= Exp(5.1060)
= $165.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8027 + -0.0010 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0737)
= Exp(4.8110)
= $122.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.34% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $177.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.59 (11.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 1.2209
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.06%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2209 + 0.0022 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.0409)
= $154.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2209 + 0.0022 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.8664)
= $129.85
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2209 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.2709)
= $194.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2209 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.0964)
= $163.44
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.81% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.