First Solar Inc (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. offers solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions in the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.49% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $140.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.82% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.96 (5.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.8266
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0832
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0832) – 1
= 39.50%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8266 + -0.0022 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.7925)
= $327.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8266 + -0.0022 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.4596)
= $234.99
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8266 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.0570)
= $157.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8266 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(4.7241)
= $112.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.49% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $140.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 11.4826
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0569
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0569) – 1
= 25.56%
November 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4826 + -0.0037 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(5.4468)
= $232.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4826 + -0.0037 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(5.2192)
= $184.79
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4826 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(4.8961)
= $133.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4826 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(4.6685)
= $106.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.82% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.96 (5.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.