Stock Price Trends

CEVA Inc (CEVA)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.90% per annum.
  • CEVA price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $20.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.17% per annum.
  • CEVA price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CEVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 7, 2021
End date: February 13, 2024

a = 4.6548

b = -0.0010

s = 0.1006

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1006) – 1
= 49.53%

January 7, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y422)
= Exp(a + b × X422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6548 + -0.0010 × 611 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.2612)
= $70.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y422)
= Exp(a + b × X422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6548 + -0.0010 × 611 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(3.8589)
= $47.41

February 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(3.1593)
= $23.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(2.7570)
= $15.75

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.90% per annum.
  • CEVA price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $20.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024

a = 1.4815

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0725

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.63%

September 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4815 + 0.0009 × 1,591 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.0983)
= $22.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4815 + 0.0009 × 1,591 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(2.8084)
= $16.58

April 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4815 + 0.0009 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.2926)
= $26.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4815 + 0.0009 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.0027)
= $20.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.17% per annum.
  • CEVA price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.