Apple Inc (AAPL)
Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company that specializes in consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue (totalling $274.5 billion in 2020) and, since January 2021, the world's most valuable company. As of 2021, Apple is the world's fourth-largest PC vendor by unit sales, and fourth-largest smartphone manufacturer. It is one of the Big Five American information technology companies, along with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.68% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $217.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 227.17% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.83 (2.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2020
End date: June 11, 2024
a = 4.6683
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0869
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0869) – 1
= 41.56%
August 6, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6683 + 0.0003 × 377 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.9654)
= $143.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6683 + 0.0003 × 377 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.6178)
= $101.27
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6683 + 0.0003 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.4250)
= $227.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6683 + 0.0003 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.0774)
= $160.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.68% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $217.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024
a = -0.4715
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 227.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.44%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4715 + 0.0032 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.1423)
= $171.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4715 + 0.0032 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.0339)
= $153.54
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4715 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.5060)
= $246.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4715 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.3976)
= $220.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 227.17% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.83 (2.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.