Apple Inc (AAPL)
Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company that specializes in consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue (totalling $274.5 billion in 2020) and, since January 2021, the world's most valuable company. As of 2021, Apple is the world's fourth-largest PC vendor by unit sales, and fourth-largest smartphone manufacturer. It is one of the Big Five American information technology companies, along with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.19% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $234.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.42% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2024
End date: August 7, 2025
a = 5.8638
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0607
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.50%
July 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8638 + -0.0003 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.5774)
= $264.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8638 + -0.0003 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.3344)
= $207.35
August 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8638 + -0.0003 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.4593)
= $234.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8638 + -0.0003 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.2164)
= $184.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.19% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $234.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 2.3202
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.21%
May 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3202 + 0.0017 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.3180)
= $203.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3202 + 0.0017 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.2118)
= $183.42
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3202 + 0.0017 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.5107)
= $247.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3202 + 0.0017 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.4045)
= $222.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.42% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.