Apple Inc (AAPL)
Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company that specializes in consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue (totalling $274.5 billion in 2020) and, since January 2021, the world's most valuable company. As of 2021, Apple is the world's fourth-largest PC vendor by unit sales, and fourth-largest smartphone manufacturer. It is one of the Big Five American information technology companies, along with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.79% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $210.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (0.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 248.61% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 7.5457
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0471
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -36.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.75%
November 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5457 + -0.0013 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(5.6240)
= $277.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5457 + -0.0013 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(5.4354)
= $229.39
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5457 + -0.0013 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(5.3563)
= $211.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5457 + -0.0013 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(5.1677)
= $175.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.79% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $210.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.19 (0.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2025
End date: July 8, 2025
a = -0.8874
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 248.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0124) – 1
= 5.07%
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8874 + 0.0034 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.2957)
= $199.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8874 + 0.0034 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.2463)
= $189.86
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8874 + 0.0034 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.3813)
= $217.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8874 + 0.0034 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0124)
= Exp(5.3318)
= $206.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 248.61% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.