# Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on an open, modular architecture. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 330.07% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $540.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $86.31 (13.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.63% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $51.26 (8.66%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of SMCI price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2022

End date: July 26, 2024

a = -0.3365

b = 0.0040

s = 0.2600

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1

= 330.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.2600) – 1

= 182.93%

#### February 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{626})

= Exp(a + b × X_{626} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 906 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 906 + 2 × 0.2600)

= Exp(3.8045)

= $44.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{626})

= Exp(a + b × X_{626} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 906 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 906 – 2 × 0.2600)

= Exp(2.7645)

= $15.87

#### July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,246})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,246} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.2600)

= Exp(7.4135)

= $1,658.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,246})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,246} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.2600)

= Exp(6.3735)

= $586.08

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 330.07% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $540.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $86.31 (13.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2024

End date: August 6, 2024

a = 10.5313

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0970

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1

= -54.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0970) – 1

= 47.39%

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,145})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,145} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)

= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0970)

= Exp(7.1269)

= $1,245.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,145})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,145} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)

= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0970)

= Exp(6.7390)

= $844.70

#### August 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,253})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,253} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)

= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0970)

= Exp(6.7848)

= $884.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,253})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,253} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)

= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0970)

= Exp(6.3969)

= $599.98

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.63% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $51.26 (8.66%).