Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on an open, modular architecture. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 330.07% per annum.
• SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$540.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$86.31 (13.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.63% per annum.
• SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$51.26 (8.66%).
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -0.3365

b = 0.0040

s = 0.2600

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 330.07%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2600) – 1
= 182.93%

February 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y626)
= Exp(a + b × X626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 906 + 2 × 0.2600)
= Exp(3.8045)
= \$44.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y626)
= Exp(a + b × X626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 906 – 2 × 0.2600)
= Exp(2.7645)
= \$15.87

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.2600)
= Exp(7.4135)
= \$1,658.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3365 + 0.0040 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.2600)
= Exp(6.3735)
= \$586.08

Description

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 330.07% per annum.
• SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$540.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$86.31 (13.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: August 6, 2024

a = 10.5313

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0970

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.63%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0970) – 1
= 47.39%

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(7.1269)
= \$1,245.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(6.7390)
= \$844.70

August 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(6.7848)
= \$884.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5313 + -0.0022 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(6.3969)
= \$599.98

Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.63% per annum.
• SMCI price at the close of August 12, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$51.26 (8.66%).