Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is a leading provider of high-performance server and storage solutions, renowned for its innovative approach leveraging an open, modular architecture. Headquartered in San Jose, California, the company delivers cutting-edge technologies tailored to meet the demands of data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise applications. With a strong commitment to sustainability and efficiency, Super Micro is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced computing solutions in various sectors, including artificial intelligence and big data analytics.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.76% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 26, 2026 was $32.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.62% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: February 26, 2026
a = 5.6131
b = -0.0012
s = 0.2905
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2905) – 1
= 219.68%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6131 + -0.0012 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.2905)
= Exp(4.9030)
= $134.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6131 + -0.0012 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.2905)
= Exp(3.7408)
= $42.13
February 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6131 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2905)
= Exp(3.9839)
= $53.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6131 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2905)
= Exp(2.8218)
= $16.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.76% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 26, 2026 was $32.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: February 26, 2026
a = 3.6828
b = 0.0000
s = 0.2196
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2196) – 1
= 140.72%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6828 + 0.0000 × 1,276 + 2 × 0.2196)
= Exp(4.1003)
= $60.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6828 + 0.0000 × 1,276 – 2 × 0.2196)
= Exp(3.2218)
= $25.07
February 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6828 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2196)
= Exp(4.0910)
= $59.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6828 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2196)
= Exp(3.2125)
= $24.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.62% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of February 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.