Stock Price Trends

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 

supermicro (nasdaq: smci) is a global leader in high performance, high efficiency server technology and innovation. we develop and provide end-to-end green computing solutions to the data center, cloud computing, enterprise it, big data, high performance computing, or hpc, and embedded markets. our solutions range from complete server, storage, blade and workstations to full racks, networking devices, server management software and technology support and services. we offer our customers a high degree of flexibility and customization by providing what we believe to be the industry's broadest array of server configurations from which they can choose the optimal solution which fits their computing needs. our server systems, subsystems and accessories are architecturally designed to provide high levels of reliability, quality and scalability, thereby enabling our customers benefits in the areas of compute performance, density, thermal management and power efficiency to lower their overall

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 270.92% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $803.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $147.48 (22.49%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,604,832.60% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2022
End date: February 13, 2024

a = -0.4946

b = 0.0036

s = 0.2168

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 270.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2168) – 1
= 138.03%

February 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0036 × 1,081 + 2 × 0.2168)
= Exp(3.8212)
= $45.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0036 × 1,081 – 2 × 0.2168)
= Exp(2.9540)
= $19.18

February 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0036 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.2168)
= Exp(6.4751)
= $648.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4946 + 0.0036 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.2168)
= Exp(5.6079)
= $272.58

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 270.92% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $803.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $147.48 (22.49%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: February 16, 2024

a = -41.6091

b = 0.0265

s = 0.0833

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0265) – 1
= 1,604,832.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0833) – 1
= 39.53%

January 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-41.6091 + 0.0265 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(5.7277)
= $307.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-41.6091 + 0.0265 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(5.3946)
= $220.21

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-41.6091 + 0.0265 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(6.9216)
= $1,013.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-41.6091 + 0.0265 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(6.5884)
= $726.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,604,832.60% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.