Stock Price Trends

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) 

Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on an open, modular architecture. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 364.36% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $847.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.87% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 30, 2022
End date: May 23, 2024

a = -0.9785

b = 0.0042

s = 0.2593

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 364.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2593) – 1
= 182.16%

March 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,041 + 2 × 0.2593)
= Exp(3.9195)
= $50.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,041 – 2 × 0.2593)
= Exp(2.8822)
= $17.85

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2593)
= Exp(7.2218)
= $1,368.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2593)
= Exp(6.1845)
= $485.17

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 364.36% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $847.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 14.2077

b = -0.0041

s = 0.0861

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1
= -77.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0861) – 1
= 41.10%

March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(7.1644)
= $1,292.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(6.8201)
= $916.04

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(6.8338)
= $928.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(6.4894)
= $658.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.87% per annum.
  • SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.