# Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

Super Micro Computer, Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on an open, modular architecture. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 364.36% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $847.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.87% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of SMCI price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 30, 2022

End date: May 23, 2024

a = -0.9785

b = 0.0042

s = 0.2593

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1

= 364.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.2593) – 1

= 182.16%

#### March 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{718})

= Exp(a + b × X_{718} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,041 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,041 + 2 × 0.2593)

= Exp(3.9195)

= $50.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{718})

= Exp(a + b × X_{718} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,041 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,041 – 2 × 0.2593)

= Exp(2.8822)

= $17.85

#### May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2593)

= Exp(7.2218)

= $1,368.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9785 + 0.0042 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2593)

= Exp(6.1845)

= $485.17

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 364.36% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $847.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2024

End date: May 23, 2024

a = 14.2077

b = -0.0041

s = 0.0861

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0041) – 1

= -77.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0861) – 1

= 41.10%

#### March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,201})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,201} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)

= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0861)

= Exp(7.1644)

= $1,292.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,201})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,201} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)

= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0861)

= Exp(6.8201)

= $916.04

#### May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0861)

= Exp(6.8338)

= $928.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(14.2077 + -0.0041 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0861)

= Exp(6.4894)

= $658.16

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 77.87% per annum.
- SMCI price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.