Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is an American multinational semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California, that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets. AMD's main products include microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, embedded processors and graphics processors for servers, workstations, personal computers and embedded system applications.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.95% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $138.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.25 (10.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.77% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 2.2008
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1182) – 1
= 60.42%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2008 + 0.0017 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(4.3811)
= $79.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2008 + 0.0017 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(3.9085)
= $49.83
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2008 + 0.0017 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(5.4981)
= $244.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2008 + 0.0017 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(5.0255)
= $152.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.95% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $138.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.25 (10.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.4163
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.94%
January 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4163 + -0.0007 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(5.3442)
= $209.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4163 + -0.0007 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(5.0519)
= $156.32
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4163 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(5.2043)
= $182.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4163 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.9121)
= $135.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.77% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.