Stock Price Trends

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) 

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is an American multinational semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California, that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets. AMD's main products include microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, embedded processors and graphics processors for servers, workstations, personal computers and embedded system applications.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.73% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $154.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.88% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: June 7, 2024

a = 2.0420

b = 0.0018

s = 0.1168

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1168) – 1
= 59.54%

September 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0420 + 0.0018 × 1,190 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(4.3635)
= $78.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0420 + 0.0018 × 1,190 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.8964)
= $49.22

June 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0420 + 0.0018 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(5.4584)
= $234.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0420 + 0.0018 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(4.9912)
= $147.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.73% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $154.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 6.9755

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0707

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0707) – 1
= 32.69%

January 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9755 + -0.0011 × 1,674 + 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(5.3565)
= $211.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9755 + -0.0011 × 1,674 – 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(5.0736)
= $159.74

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9755 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(5.1977)
= $180.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9755 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(4.9148)
= $136.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.88% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.