Stock Price Trends

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) 

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., commonly abbreviated as AMD, is an American multinational semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California, that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 528.29% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $173.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.51% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 17, 2023
End date: February 16, 2024

a = -3.9668

b = 0.0050

s = 0.0450

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 528.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.74%

October 17, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9668 + 0.0050 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.6881)
= $108.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9668 + 0.0050 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.5079)
= $90.73

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9668 + 0.0050 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.3024)
= $200.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9668 + 0.0050 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.1222)
= $167.71

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 528.29% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $173.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 5.2306

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0236

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0236) – 1
= 9.92%

January 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2306 + 0.0000 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.2029)
= $181.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2306 + 0.0000 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.1083)
= $165.39

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2306 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.2017)
= $181.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2306 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.1072)
= $165.20

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.51% per annum.
  • AMD price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.