Stock Price Trends

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)

NXP Semiconductors N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor manufacturer with headquarters in Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.23% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $196.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.28% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.00 (12.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: February 11, 2025

a = 7.1196

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0366

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.75%

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1196 + -0.0010 × 1,468 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.6866)
= $294.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1196 + -0.0010 × 1,468 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.5403)
= $254.77

February 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1196 + -0.0010 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.3983)
= $221.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1196 + -0.0010 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.2521)
= $190.96

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.23% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $196.24 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 14, 2025
End date: April 21, 2025

a = 15.7781

b = -0.0059

s = 0.0502

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0059) – 1
= -88.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0502) – 1
= 22.25%

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7781 + -0.0059 × 1,752 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(5.5891)
= $267.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7781 + -0.0059 × 1,752 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(5.3882)
= $218.81

April 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7781 + -0.0059 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(5.2015)
= $181.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7781 + -0.0059 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(5.0006)
= $148.50

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.28% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.00 (12.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.