NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)
NXP Semiconductors N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor manufacturer with headquarters in Eindhoven, Netherlands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $258.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.76 (41.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.01% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2021
End date: June 6, 2023
a = 5.3858
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0933
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0933) – 1
= 45.26%
January 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3858 + -0.0002 × 608 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(5.4514)
= $233.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3858 + -0.0002 × 608 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(5.0780)
= $160.46
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3858 + -0.0002 × 1,490 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(5.2758)
= $195.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3858 + -0.0002 × 1,490 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(4.9024)
= $134.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $258.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $75.76 (41.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.0212
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0666
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0666) – 1
= 30.53%
August 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0212 + 0.0008 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0666)
= Exp(5.1241)
= $168.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0212 + 0.0008 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0666)
= Exp(4.8576)
= $128.72
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0212 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0666)
= Exp(5.6189)
= $275.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0212 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0666)
= Exp(5.3525)
= $211.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.01% per annum.
- NXPI price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.