Stock Price Trends

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) 

Broadcom Inc. is an American multinational designer, developer, manufacturer, and global supplier of a wide range of semiconductor and infrastructure software products. Broadcoms product offerings serve the data center, networking, software, broadband, wireless, storage, and industrial markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.50% per annum.
  • AVGO price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $1,399.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 216.67% per annum.
  • AVGO price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 3.6584

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0697

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.14%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y895)
= Exp(a + b × X895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6584 + 0.0019 × 1,296 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(6.2500)
= $517.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y895)
= Exp(a + b × X895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6584 + 0.0019 × 1,296 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.9713)
= $392.01

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6584 + 0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(7.2490)
= $1,406.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6584 + 0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(6.9703)
= $1,064.58

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 99.50% per annum.
  • AVGO price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $1,399.17 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 1.4281

b = 0.0032

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 216.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.31%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4281 + 0.0032 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.7609)
= $863.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4281 + 0.0032 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.5928)
= $729.85

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4281 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(7.2726)
= $1,440.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4281 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(7.1045)
= $1,217.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 216.67% per annum.
  • AVGO price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.