Stock Price Trends

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL)

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL) is a leading designer, developer, and supplier of advanced power semiconductor products, serving a broad array of applications including computing, consumer electronics, communications, and industrial markets. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, AOSL leverages its innovative technology to deliver high-performance solutions that cater to the evolving needs of its diverse clientele. With a strong commitment to research and development, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient semiconductors in a rapidly advancing technological landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.03% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $31.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.70% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 21, 2025

a = -0.9222

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0744

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0744) – 1
= 34.65%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0024 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(3.1223)
= $22.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0024 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(2.8248)
= $16.86

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(3.6045)
= $36.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0744)
= Exp(3.3069)
= $27.30

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.03% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $31.32 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2025
End date: October 21, 2025

a = 1.6737

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0452

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.81%

June 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6737 + 0.0009 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(3.3601)
= $28.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6737 + 0.0009 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(3.1794)
= $24.03

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6737 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(3.4715)
= $32.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6737 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(3.2907)
= $26.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.70% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.