Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL)
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL) is a leading designer, developer, and supplier of advanced power semiconductor products, serving a broad array of applications including computing, consumer electronics, communications, and industrial markets. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, AOSL leverages its innovative technology to deliver high-performance solutions that cater to the evolving needs of its diverse clientele. With a strong commitment to research and development, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient semiconductors in a rapidly advancing technological landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $22.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 141.73% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: January 16, 2026
a = 5.1093
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1782) – 1
= 103.93%
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(4.0523)
= $57.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(3.3397)
= $28.21
January 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(3.4072)
= $30.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(2.6946)
= $14.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $22.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 11, 2025
End date: January 16, 2026
a = -1.3079
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 141.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.20%
November 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.0306)
= $20.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.8466)
= $17.23
January 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.1902)
= $24.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.0062)
= $20.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 141.73% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.