Stock Price Trends

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL)

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL) is a leading designer, developer, and supplier of advanced power semiconductor products, serving a broad array of applications including computing, consumer electronics, communications, and industrial markets. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, AOSL leverages its innovative technology to deliver high-performance solutions that cater to the evolving needs of its diverse clientele. With a strong commitment to research and development, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for energy-efficient semiconductors in a rapidly advancing technological landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $22.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 141.73% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: January 16, 2026

a = 5.1093

b = -0.0011

s = 0.1782

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1782) – 1
= 103.93%

June 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(4.0523)
= $57.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(3.3397)
= $28.21

January 16, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(3.4072)
= $30.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1093 + -0.0011 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1782)
= Exp(2.6946)
= $14.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.79% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $22.51 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 11, 2025
End date: January 16, 2026

a = -1.3079

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0460

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 141.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.20%

November 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.0306)
= $20.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.8466)
= $17.23

January 16, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.1902)
= $24.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3079 + 0.0024 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.0062)
= $20.21

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 141.73% per annum.
  • AOSL price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.