Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL)
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited designs, develops and supplies power semiconductor products for computer, consumer electronics, communications and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.02% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $22.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.63% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2021
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 4.7636
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1290) – 1
= 67.50%
November 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7636 + -0.0009 × 913 + 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(4.1643)
= $64.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7636 + -0.0009 × 913 – 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(3.6485)
= $38.42
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7636 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(3.3071)
= $27.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7636 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(2.7913)
= $16.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.02% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $22.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 4.2799
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1069
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1069) – 1
= 53.33%
September 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2799 + -0.0006 × 1,218 + 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.7227)
= $41.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2799 + -0.0006 × 1,218 – 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.2953)
= $26.98
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2799 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(3.3378)
= $28.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2799 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1069)
= Exp(2.9104)
= $18.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.63% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.