Stock Price Trends

Diodes Incorporated (DIOD)

Diodes Incorporated designs, manufactures and supplies standard products for specific applications in the discrete, logic, analog and mixed-signal semiconductor markets worldwide. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.17% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $80.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.41% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIOD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 29, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 4.6894

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1182

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1182) – 1
= 60.44%

July 29, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6894 + -0.0002 × 731 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(4.7551)
= $116.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6894 + -0.0002 × 731 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(4.2823)
= $72.41

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6894 + -0.0002 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(4.5035)
= $90.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6894 + -0.0002 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(4.0307)
= $56.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.17% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $80.27 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.7264

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0374

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.15%

January 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7264 + 0.0009 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.2635)
= $71.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7264 + 0.0009 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.1137)
= $61.17

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7264 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.4255)
= $83.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7264 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.2758)
= $71.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.41% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.