Stock Price Trends

Diodes Incorporated (DIOD)

Diodes Incorporated designs, manufactures and supplies standard products for specific applications in the discrete, logic, analog and mixed-signal semiconductor markets worldwide. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.35% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $76.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.44 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.73% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.64 (2.19%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIOD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024

a = 5.6445

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0617

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 28.00%

January 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6445 + -0.0008 × 1,356 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(4.6816)
= $107.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6445 + -0.0008 × 1,356 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(4.4348)
= $84.33

April 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6445 + -0.0008 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(4.3147)
= $74.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6445 + -0.0008 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(4.0679)
= $58.43

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.35% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $76.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.44 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 3.3181

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0276

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%

January 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3181 + 0.0005 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.2626)
= $70.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3181 + 0.0005 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.1522)
= $63.58

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3181 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.3157)
= $74.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3181 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.2054)
= $67.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.73% per annum.
  • DIOD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.64 (2.19%).