Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.95% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $401.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.10 (9.90%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.25% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 7.1995
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.80%
July 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1995 + -0.0006 × 1,620 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.3184)
= $554.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1995 + -0.0006 × 1,620 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.2158)
= $500.62
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1995 + -0.0006 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.2108)
= $498.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1995 + -0.0006 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(6.1082)
= $449.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.95% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $401.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.10 (9.90%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 9.0752
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.56%
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0752 + -0.0017 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(6.3538)
= $574.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0752 + -0.0017 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(6.2092)
= $497.29
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0752 + -0.0017 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(6.1393)
= $463.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0752 + -0.0017 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.9947)
= $401.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.25% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.