Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.90% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $517.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $155.36 (23.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.44% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 4.6999
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0549
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0549) – 1
= 24.58%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y457)
= Exp(a + b × X457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0011 × 662 + 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(5.5073)
= $246.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y457)
= Exp(a + b × X457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0011 × 662 – 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(5.2876)
= $197.86
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0011 × 1,359 + 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(6.2418)
= $513.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0011 × 1,359 – 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(6.0220)
= $412.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.90% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $517.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $155.36 (23.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 5.3349
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0727
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0727) – 1
= 33.74%
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3349 + 0.0005 × 906 + 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(5.9211)
= $372.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3349 + 0.0005 × 906 – 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(5.6304)
= $278.78
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3349 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(6.3679)
= $582.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3349 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0727)
= Exp(6.0772)
= $435.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.44% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.