Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.18% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of December 15, 2025 was $474.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $129.77 (21.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.02% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of December 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 4.9012
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0749
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.92%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9012 + 0.0009 × 541 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.5410)
= $254.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9012 + 0.0009 × 541 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.2415)
= $188.95
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9012 + 0.0009 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(6.2503)
= $518.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9012 + 0.0009 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.9507)
= $384.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.18% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of December 15, 2025 was $474.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $129.77 (21.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: December 15, 2025
a = 5.3656
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0716
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0716) – 1
= 33.18%
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3656 + 0.0005 × 862 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.9201)
= $372.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3656 + 0.0005 × 862 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(5.6336)
= $279.67
December 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3656 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(6.3796)
= $589.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3656 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0716)
= Exp(6.0931)
= $442.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.02% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of December 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.