Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. It develops and sells cybersecurity solutions, including but not limited to physical products such as firewalls, plus software and services such as anti-virus protection, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security components.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.47% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.93% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 9, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.0468
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1117
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1117) – 1
= 56.30%
July 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0468 + 0.0000 × 714 + 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(4.2986)
= $73.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0468 + 0.0000 × 714 – 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(3.8520)
= $47.09
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0468 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(4.3429)
= $76.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0468 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(3.8963)
= $49.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.47% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.4298
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.55%
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4298 + -0.0013 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.3280)
= $75.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4298 + -0.0013 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.2009)
= $66.75
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4298 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(4.1071)
= $60.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4298 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(3.9801)
= $53.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.93% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.