Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. It develops and sells cybersecurity solutions, including but not limited to physical products such as firewalls, plus software and services such as anti-virus protection, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security components.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.07% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $60.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.36% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2021
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 4.0243
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1151) – 1
= 58.47%
July 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0243 + 0.0001 × 783 + 2 × 0.1151)
= Exp(4.2983)
= $73.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y539)
= Exp(a + b × X539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0243 + 0.0001 × 783 – 2 × 0.1151)
= Exp(3.8380)
= $46.43
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0243 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1151)
= Exp(4.3568)
= $78.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0243 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1151)
= Exp(3.8964)
= $49.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.07% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $60.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 8.6056
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.32%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6056 + -0.0025 × 1,752 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.3420)
= $76.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6056 + -0.0025 × 1,752 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.2259)
= $68.44
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6056 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.1595)
= $64.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6056 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(4.0434)
= $57.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.36% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.