CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT)
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.46% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of September 11, 2025 was $180.94 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (1.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.77% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of September 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2023
End date: June 18, 2025
a = 2.6687
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1031
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1031) – 1
= 51.03%
January 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6687 + 0.0015 × 849 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.1559)
= $63.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6687 + 0.0015 × 849 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(3.7436)
= $42.25
June 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6687 + 0.0015 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.4973)
= $244.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6687 + 0.0015 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.0850)
= $161.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.46% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of September 11, 2025 was $180.94 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (1.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: September 11, 2025
a = 4.3027
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.73%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y974)
= Exp(a + b × X974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3027 + 0.0005 × 1,415 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(5.1246)
= $168.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y974)
= Exp(a + b × X974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3027 + 0.0005 × 1,415 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.8799)
= $131.61
September 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3027 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(5.3263)
= $205.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3027 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(5.0816)
= $161.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.77% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of September 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.