CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT)
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.69% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $124.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.77% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 0.7366
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 127.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.98%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7366 + 0.0023 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.2457)
= $69.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7366 + 0.0023 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.0804)
= $59.17
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7366 + 0.0023 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.9310)
= $138.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7366 + 0.0023 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.7657)
= $117.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.69% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $124.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.5141
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.17%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5141 + 0.0018 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.5635)
= $95.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5141 + 0.0018 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.4310)
= $84.01
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5141 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.8861)
= $132.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5141 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.7535)
= $115.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 93.77% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.