CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT)
Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) is a leading provider of data protection and information management software solutions, catering to a global clientele across various industries. Headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey, the company specializes in delivering innovative solutions that enable organizations to manage, protect, and optimize their data assets, ensuring compliance and enhancing operational efficiency. With a robust portfolio that includes cloud and on-premises services, Commvault is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for reliable data management in an increasingly digital world.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.05% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $78.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.04% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2025
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 11.7992
b = -0.0040
s = 0.0976
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -77.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0976) – 1
= 47.73%
July 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7992 + -0.0040 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0976)
= Exp(5.5541)
= $258.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7992 + -0.0040 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0976)
= Exp(5.1639)
= $174.85
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7992 + -0.0040 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0976)
= Exp(4.6387)
= $103.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7992 + -0.0040 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0976)
= Exp(4.2485)
= $70.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 77.05% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $78.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2026
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 6.0133
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.20%
January 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0133 + -0.0009 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.5517)
= $94.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0133 + -0.0009 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.4015)
= $81.58
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0133 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.5128)
= $91.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0133 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.3627)
= $78.47
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.04% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.