N-Able Inc (NABL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.52% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $12.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.13 (9.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NABL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: December 19, 2023
a = 3.2785
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0300
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0300) – 1
= 12.74%
May 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2785 + -0.0009 × 660 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.7563)
= $15.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2785 + -0.0009 × 660 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.6364)
= $13.96
December 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2785 + -0.0009 × 883 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.5596)
= $12.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2785 + -0.0009 × 883 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(2.4397)
= $11.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.52% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $12.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.13 (9.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 2.6729
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.14%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6729 + -0.0001 × 746 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(2.6538)
= $14.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6729 + -0.0001 × 746 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(2.5042)
= $12.23
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6729 + -0.0001 × 1,029 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(2.6181)
= $13.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6729 + -0.0001 × 1,029 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(2.4685)
= $11.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.