Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Progress Software Corporation develops business applications. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.29% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $59.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (1.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.25% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 6.2347
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0483
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.34%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2347 + -0.0012 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.3425)
= $76.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2347 + -0.0012 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.1491)
= $63.38
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2347 + -0.0012 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.0856)
= $59.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2347 + -0.0012 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.8922)
= $49.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.29% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $59.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (1.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.7788
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0310
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7788 + 0.0001 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.0829)
= $59.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7788 + 0.0001 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.9589)
= $52.40
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7788 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.0965)
= $60.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7788 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.9725)
= $53.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.25% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.