Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Progress Software Corporation develops business applications. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.44 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.93 (3.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 166.85% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: June 25, 2024
a = 4.3705
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.14%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0002 × 1,287 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.1470)
= $63.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0002 × 1,287 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.9719)
= $53.08
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0002 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.0239)
= $55.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3705 + -0.0002 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.8488)
= $46.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.44 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.93 (3.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -0.8729
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 166.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.18%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8729 + 0.0027 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.9389)
= $51.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8729 + 0.0027 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.8240)
= $45.79
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8729 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.0948)
= $60.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8729 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(3.9799)
= $53.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 166.85% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.