Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Progress Software Corporation develops business applications. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.54% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $50.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (1.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.51% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 6.6597
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0150) – 1
= 6.20%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6597 + -0.0015 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(4.0939)
= $59.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6597 + -0.0015 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(4.0338)
= $56.48
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6597 + -0.0015 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.9330)
= $51.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6597 + -0.0015 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.8729)
= $48.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.54% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $50.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (1.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.0532
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0098
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0098) – 1
= 3.98%
April 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0532 + -0.0001 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(3.9484)
= $51.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0532 + -0.0001 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(3.9093)
= $49.87
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0532 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(3.9457)
= $51.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0532 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0098)
= Exp(3.9066)
= $49.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.51% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.