# Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate holding company headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.62% per annum.
• GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was \$140.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$36.22 (34.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.72% per annum.
• GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: May 9, 2023

a = 5.3387

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1081

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.62%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1081) – 1
= 54.10%

#### April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 776 + 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(5.1685)
= \$175.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 776 – 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(4.7361)
= \$113.99

#### May 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(4.7881)
= \$120.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(4.3557)
= \$77.92

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.62% per annum.
• GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was \$140.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$36.22 (34.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 2.9741

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0566

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.72%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0566) – 1
= 25.43%

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,345 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.5990)
= \$99.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,345 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.3724)
= \$79.24

#### February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(5.1363)
= \$170.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.9097)
= \$135.59

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.72% per annum.
• GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.