Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.43% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $200.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.12% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: August 2, 2024

a = 3.4596

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0616

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.96%

September 23, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4596 + 0.0010 × 970 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.5963)
= $99.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4596 + 0.0010 × 970 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.3498)
= $77.46

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4596 + 0.0010 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.3058)
= $201.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4596 + 0.0010 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.0593)
= $157.48

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.43% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $200.21 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: January 23, 2025

a = 3.8891

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0570

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0570) – 1
= 25.60%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8891 + 0.0007 × 1,200 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.8937)
= $133.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8891 + 0.0007 × 1,200 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.6658)
= $106.25

January 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8891 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.3561)
= $211.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8891 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.1282)
= $168.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.12% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.