Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.16% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $240.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.09% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.89 (5.19%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.8590

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0694

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 32.01%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8590 + 0.0009 × 728 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.6426)
= $103.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8590 + 0.0009 × 728 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.3649)
= $78.64

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8590 + 0.0009 × 1,619 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.4317)
= $228.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8590 + 0.0009 × 1,619 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.1540)
= $173.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.16% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $240.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: August 27, 2025

a = 4.3201

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0788

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.05%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3201 + 0.0005 × 968 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.9851)
= $146.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3201 + 0.0005 × 968 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.6700)
= $106.69

August 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3201 + 0.0005 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(5.4249)
= $227.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3201 + 0.0005 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(5.1098)
= $165.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.09% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of September 12, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.89 (5.19%).