Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 199.64% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $338.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.02% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026

a = 0.3768

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0448

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 199.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0448) – 1
= 19.61%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3768 + 0.0030 × 1,522 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(5.0424)
= $154.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3768 + 0.0030 × 1,522 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.8633)
= $129.45

January 30, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3768 + 0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(5.9504)
= $383.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3768 + 0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(5.7713)
= $320.96

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 199.64% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $338.00 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026

a = 3.8773

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0243

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.22%

November 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8773 + 0.0011 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.7781)
= $323.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8773 + 0.0011 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.6808)
= $293.18

January 30, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8773 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.8520)
= $347.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8773 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(5.7547)
= $315.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.02% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.