Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.74% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $167.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.28% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.81 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1716
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.66%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1716 + 0.0011 × 1,188 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.5999)
= $99.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1716 + 0.0011 × 1,188 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.3714)
= $79.16
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1716 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.3056)
= $201.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1716 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.0771)
= $160.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.74% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $167.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.4690
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.14%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4690 + 0.0021 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.9948)
= $147.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4690 + 0.0021 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.8538)
= $128.23
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4690 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.3289)
= $206.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4690 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(5.1879)
= $179.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.28% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.81 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.