# Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $158.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.17 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.90% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of GOOGL price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022

End date: August 1, 2024

a = 3.2375

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0572

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1

= 49.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1

= 25.69%

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{784})

= Exp(a + b × X_{784} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,135 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,135 + 2 × 0.0572)

= Exp(4.6000)

= $99.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{784})

= Exp(a + b × X_{784} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,135 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,135 – 2 × 0.0572)

= Exp(4.3714)

= $79.15

#### August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,226})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,226} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0572)

= Exp(5.3093)

= $202.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,226})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,226} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0572)

= Exp(5.0807)

= $160.88

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $158.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.17 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: June 25, 2024

End date: September 16, 2024

a = 9.8474

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0295

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1

= -61.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1

= 12.52%

#### June 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,200})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,200} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)

= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0295)

= Exp(5.2982)

= $199.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,200})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,200} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)

= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0295)

= Exp(5.1802)

= $177.72

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0295)

= Exp(5.0788)

= $160.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0295)

= Exp(4.9608)

= $142.71

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.90% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.