Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 192.35% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $310.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $51.19 (14.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.84% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2025
End date: February 5, 2026

a = 0.6228

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0474

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 192.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.87%

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6228 + 0.0029 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.0381)
= $154.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6228 + 0.0029 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(4.8486)
= $127.56

February 5, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6228 + 0.0029 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.9640)
= $389.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6228 + 0.0029 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.7744)
= $321.95

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 192.35% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $310.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $51.19 (14.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 24, 2025
End date: March 17, 2026

a = 6.1532

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.04%

November 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1532 + -0.0002 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.8403)
= $343.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1532 + -0.0002 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.7002)
= $298.93

March 17, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1532 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.8150)
= $335.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1532 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.6749)
= $291.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.84% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of March 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.