Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.88% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $251.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.87% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of October 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 16, 2025

a = 0.3949

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0437

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 178.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.08%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3949 + 0.0028 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.0539)
= $156.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3949 + 0.0028 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.8793)
= $131.53

October 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3949 + 0.0028 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6047)
= $271.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3949 + 0.0028 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.4300)
= $228.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 178.88% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $251.46 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2025
End date: October 16, 2025

a = 7.0599

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0154

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.36%

September 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0599 + -0.0009 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.5547)
= $258.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0599 + -0.0009 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.4930)
= $242.99

October 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0599 + -0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.5281)
= $251.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0599 + -0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.4665)
= $236.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.87% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of October 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.