Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 210.27% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of December 17, 2025 was $296.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.99% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of December 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.70 (0.57%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: December 17, 2025

a = 0.0828

b = 0.0031

s = 0.0464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 210.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.39%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0828 + 0.0031 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.0366)
= $153.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0828 + 0.0031 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.8510)
= $127.87

December 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0828 + 0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.8370)
= $342.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0828 + 0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.6514)
= $284.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 210.27% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of December 17, 2025 was $296.72 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 24, 2025
End date: December 17, 2025

a = 9.8308

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0140

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1
= 5.78%

November 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8308 + -0.0022 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.8064)
= $332.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8308 + -0.0022 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.7502)
= $314.26

December 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8308 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.7547)
= $315.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8308 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(5.6985)
= $298.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.99% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of December 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.70 (0.57%).