# Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate holding company headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.62% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $140.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.22 (34.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.72% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of GOOGL price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021

End date: May 9, 2023

a = 5.3387

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1081

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1

= -16.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1081) – 1

= 54.10%

#### April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{535})

= Exp(a + b × X_{535} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 776 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 776 + 2 × 0.1081)

= Exp(5.1685)

= $175.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{535})

= Exp(a + b × X_{535} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 776 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 776 – 2 × 0.1081)

= Exp(4.7361)

= $113.99

#### May 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,063})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,063} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.1081)

= Exp(4.7881)

= $120.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,063})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,063} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3387 + -0.0005 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.1081)

= Exp(4.3557)

= $77.92

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.62% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $140.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.22 (34.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022

End date: February 16, 2024

a = 2.9741

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0566

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1

= 50.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0566) – 1

= 25.43%

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{930})

= Exp(a + b × X_{930} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,345 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,345 + 2 × 0.0566)

= Exp(4.5990)

= $99.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{930})

= Exp(a + b × X_{930} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,345 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,345 – 2 × 0.0566)

= Exp(4.3724)

= $79.24

#### February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0566)

= Exp(5.1363)

= $170.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9741 + 0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0566)

= Exp(4.9097)

= $135.59

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.72% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.