Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $158.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.17 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.90% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 3.2375
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.69%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,135 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.6000)
= $99.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,135 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.3714)
= $79.15
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.3093)
= $202.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2375 + 0.0011 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(5.0807)
= $160.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $158.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.17 (6.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 9.8474
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.52%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.2982)
= $199.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.1802)
= $177.72
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(5.0788)
= $160.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8474 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(4.9608)
= $142.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.90% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.