Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.16% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $180.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.13 (8.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.82% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.8032

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0694

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 32.01%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y547)
= Exp(a + b × X547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8032 + 0.0009 × 792 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.6434)
= $103.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y547)
= Exp(a + b × X547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8032 + 0.0009 × 792 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.3658)
= $78.71

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8032 + 0.0009 × 1,683 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.4326)
= $228.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8032 + 0.0009 × 1,683 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.1549)
= $173.28

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.16% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $180.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.13 (8.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: July 11, 2025

a = 5.1801

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0703

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.47%

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0000 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.2895)
= $198.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0000 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.0083)
= $149.65

July 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.2795)
= $196.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(4.9983)
= $148.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.82% per annum.
  • GOOGL price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.