Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.53% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $167.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.61% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of May 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.75 (1.06%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 3.1700
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0581
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0581) – 1
= 26.15%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1700 + 0.0010 × 1,269 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.6146)
= $100.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1700 + 0.0010 × 1,269 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.3823)
= $80.02
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1700 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(5.1956)
= $180.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1700 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.9633)
= $143.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.53% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $167.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 3.7739
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0387
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0387) – 1
= 16.75%
May 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7739 + 0.0007 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.8621)
= $129.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7739 + 0.0007 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.7072)
= $110.75
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7739 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(5.1089)
= $165.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7739 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.9541)
= $141.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.61% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of May 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.75 (1.06%).