Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $160.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.96 (12.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.55% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.42 (2.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.7314
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0689
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0689) – 1
= 31.75%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7314 + 0.0009 × 870 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.6437)
= $103.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7314 + 0.0009 × 870 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.3679)
= $78.88
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7314 + 0.0009 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.4341)
= $229.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7314 + 0.0009 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(5.1584)
= $173.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.39% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $160.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.96 (12.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 10.4596
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.29%
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4596 + -0.0030 × 1,713 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.3871)
= $218.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4596 + -0.0030 × 1,713 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.2535)
= $191.23
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4596 + -0.0030 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.0661)
= $158.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4596 + -0.0030 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.9325)
= $138.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.55% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.42 (2.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.