Stock Price Trends

Thryv Holdings Inc (THRY)

Thryv Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based tools and digital marketing solutions to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the United States. The company is headquartered in DFW Airport, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.03% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $21.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.94% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of May 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (2.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THRY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: February 28, 2024

a = 3.6638

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1218

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1218) – 1
= 62.75%

June 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6638 + -0.0006 × 250 + 2 × 0.1218)
= Exp(3.7542)
= $42.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6638 + -0.0006 × 250 – 2 × 0.1218)
= Exp(3.2672)
= $26.24

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6638 + -0.0006 × 1,245 + 2 × 0.1218)
= Exp(3.1448)
= $23.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6638 + -0.0006 × 1,245 – 2 × 0.1218)
= Exp(2.6578)
= $14.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.03% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $21.07 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024

a = 1.4088

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0368

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.86%

October 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4088 + 0.0013 × 1,107 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(2.9444)
= $19.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y763)
= Exp(a + b × X763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4088 + 0.0013 × 1,107 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(2.7972)
= $16.40

May 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4088 + 0.0013 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(3.2112)
= $24.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4088 + 0.0013 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(3.0640)
= $21.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.94% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of May 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (2.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.