Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.60% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $169.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.90 (10.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.42% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.01 (3.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.7579
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0692
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0692) – 1
= 31.90%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 842 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.6493)
= $104.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 842 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.3724)
= $79.23
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.4442)
= $231.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.1673)
= $175.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.60% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $169.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.90 (10.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: May 13, 2025
a = 8.5124
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0442
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.35%
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.4106)
= $223.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.2337)
= $187.49
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.1165)
= $166.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.9397)
= $139.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.42% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.01 (3.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.