# Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate holding company headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.07% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $136.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $29.48 (27.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.33% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of GOOG price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021

End date: May 9, 2023

a = 5.3995

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1050

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1

= -17.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1050) – 1

= 52.18%

#### April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{582})

= Exp(a + b × X_{582} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 + 2 × 0.1050)

= Exp(5.1752)

= $176.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{582})

= Exp(a + b × X_{582} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 – 2 × 0.1050)

= Exp(4.7553)

= $116.20

#### May 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,110})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,110} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.1050)

= Exp(4.7835)

= $119.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,110})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,110} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.1050)

= Exp(4.3636)

= $78.54

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022

End date: December 8, 2023

a = 2.7432

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0571

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1

= 56.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1

= 25.65%

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{977})

= Exp(a + b × X_{977} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0571)

= Exp(4.5906)

= $98.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{977})

= Exp(a + b × X_{977} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0571)

= Exp(4.3623)

= $78.43

#### December 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0571)

= Exp(5.0900)

= $162.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0571)

= Exp(4.8617)

= $129.24