Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate holding company headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.07% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $136.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $29.48 (27.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.33% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: May 9, 2023
a = 5.3995
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1050
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1050) – 1
= 52.18%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(5.1752)
= $176.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.7553)
= $116.20
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.7835)
= $119.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.3636)
= $78.54
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 2.7432
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%
October 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.5906)
= $98.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.3623)
= $78.43
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.0900)
= $162.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.8617)
= $129.24