# Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate holding company headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.07% per annum.
• GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was \$136.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$29.48 (27.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.33% per annum.
• GOOG price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: May 9, 2023

a = 5.3995

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1050

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.07%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1050) – 1
= 52.18%

#### April 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(5.1752)
= \$176.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 847 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.7553)
= \$116.20

#### May 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.7835)
= \$119.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3995 + -0.0005 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(4.3636)
= \$78.54

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: December 8, 2023

a = 2.7432

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0571

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.33%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%

#### October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.5906)
= \$98.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.3623)
= \$78.43

#### December 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.0900)
= \$162.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7432 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.8617)
= \$129.24