Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.60% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $169.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.90 (10.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.42% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.01 (3.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.7579

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0692

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0692) – 1
= 31.90%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 842 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.6493)
= $104.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 842 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(4.3724)
= $79.23

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.4442)
= $231.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7579 + 0.0009 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(5.1673)
= $175.45

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.60% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was $169.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.90 (10.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: May 13, 2025

a = 8.5124

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0442

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.35%

December 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.4106)
= $223.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.2337)
= $187.49

May 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.1165)
= $166.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5124 + -0.0019 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.9397)
= $139.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.42% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of May 23, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.01 (3.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.