Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.79% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $157.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.66% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: April 25, 2024

a = 3.1585

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0579

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.08%

October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1585 + 0.0011 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.6192)
= $101.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1585 + 0.0011 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.3875)
= $80.44

April 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1585 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(5.1944)
= $180.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1585 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.9627)
= $142.98

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.79% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $157.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024

a = 3.8065

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0364

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0364) – 1
= 15.65%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8065 + 0.0007 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(4.8666)
= $129.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8065 + 0.0007 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(4.7212)
= $112.30

April 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8065 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(5.1007)
= $164.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8065 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(4.9553)
= $141.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.66% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.