Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $186.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.72 (4.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.50% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: August 2, 2024

a = 3.4790

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0614

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.86%

September 23, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4790 + 0.0011 × 948 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.6003)
= $99.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4790 + 0.0011 × 948 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.3545)
= $77.83

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4790 + 0.0011 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.3154)
= $203.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4790 + 0.0011 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.0696)
= $159.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $186.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.72 (4.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 3.9018

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0563

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0563) – 1
= 25.28%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9018 + 0.0008 × 1,178 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(4.8985)
= $134.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9018 + 0.0008 × 1,178 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(4.6731)
= $107.02

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9018 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(5.3824)
= $217.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9018 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(5.1570)
= $173.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.50% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.