Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.81% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $162.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.83 (13.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.55% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.89 (2.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.7285
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0688
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0688) – 1
= 31.69%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7285 + 0.0009 × 873 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(4.6505)
= $104.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7285 + 0.0009 × 873 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(4.3752)
= $79.45
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7285 + 0.0009 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(5.4447)
= $231.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7285 + 0.0009 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(5.1694)
= $175.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.81% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $162.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.83 (13.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 10.3249
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.28%
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3249 + -0.0029 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.3936)
= $219.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3249 + -0.0029 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.2601)
= $192.50
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3249 + -0.0029 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.0812)
= $160.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3249 + -0.0029 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.9477)
= $140.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.55% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.89 (2.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.