Stock Price Trends

Match Group Inc (MTCH)

Match Group, Inc. is a leading global provider of dating products, operating a diverse portfolio of well-known brands including Tinder, Match, OkCupid, and Plenty of Fish. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, the company leverages innovative technology and data-driven insights to enhance user experiences and foster connections in the ever-evolving online dating landscape. As the market leader, Match Group continues to expand its reach and engagement through strategic partnerships and product enhancements, positioning itself for sustainable growth in the rapidly digitizing social interaction space.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.27% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $30.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.47% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: February 18, 2026

a = 3.5339

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0783

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0783) – 1
= 36.76%

October 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5339 + 0.0000 × 955 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(3.6568)
= $38.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5339 + 0.0000 × 955 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(3.3438)
= $28.33

February 18, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5339 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(3.6263)
= $37.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5339 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(3.3133)
= $27.47

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.27% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of February 18, 2026 was $30.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 6, 2025
End date: February 18, 2026

a = 5.2299

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0370

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.96%

August 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2299 + -0.0010 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(3.6819)
= $39.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2299 + -0.0010 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(3.5338)
= $34.25

February 18, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2299 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(3.4867)
= $32.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2299 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(3.3386)
= $28.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.47% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of February 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.