Match Group Inc (MTCH)
Match Group, Inc. offers dating products globally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.12% per annum.
- MTCH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.58 (15.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.60% per annum.
- MTCH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2020
End date: December 27, 2023
a = 6.1733
b = -0.0017
s = 0.1849
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1849) – 1
= 109.48%
December 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y348)
= Exp(a + b × X348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 503 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0017 × 503 + 2 × 0.1849)
= Exp(5.6650)
= $288.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y348)
= Exp(a + b × X348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 503 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0017 × 503 – 2 × 0.1849)
= Exp(4.9256)
= $137.77
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0017 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.1849)
= Exp(3.7240)
= $41.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0017 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.1849)
= Exp(2.9846)
= $19.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.12% per annum.
- MTCH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $33.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.58 (15.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.5327
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1049
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1049) – 1
= 52.15%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5327 + -0.0006 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.0540)
= $57.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5327 + -0.0006 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(3.6344)
= $37.88
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5327 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(3.6512)
= $38.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5327 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(3.2315)
= $25.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.60% per annum.
- MTCH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.