Stock Price Trends

Match Group Inc (MTCH)

Match Group, Inc. offers dating products globally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.24% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $31.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.66% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 15, 2020
End date: December 27, 2023

a = 6.3198

b = -0.0018

s = 0.1842

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1842) – 1
= 108.95%

December 15, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0018 × 587 + 2 × 0.1842)
= Exp(5.6598)
= $287.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0018 × 587 – 2 × 0.1842)
= Exp(4.9229)
= $137.41

December 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0018 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.1842)
= Exp(3.7204)
= $41.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0018 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.1842)
= Exp(2.9835)
= $19.76

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.24% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $31.51 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 4.5343

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1092

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1092) – 1
= 54.76%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5343 + -0.0006 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.1092)
= Exp(4.0562)
= $57.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y849)
= Exp(a + b × X849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5343 + -0.0006 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.1092)
= Exp(3.6195)
= $37.32

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5343 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1092)
= Exp(3.7196)
= $41.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5343 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1092)
= Exp(3.2829)
= $26.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.66% per annum.
  • MTCH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.