Netflix Inc (NFLX)
Netflix, Inc. is an American over-the-top content platform and production company headquartered in Los Gatos, California. Netflix was founded in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph in Scotts Valley, California. The company's primary business is a subscription-based streaming service offering online streaming from a library of films and television series, including those produced in-house.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.35% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $561.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.02% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.54 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.4858
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0940
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0940) – 1
= 45.67%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4858 + 0.0016 × 1,088 + 2 × 0.0940)
= Exp(5.4317)
= $228.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4858 + 0.0016 × 1,088 – 2 × 0.0940)
= Exp(5.0555)
= $156.88
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4858 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0940)
= Exp(6.6208)
= $750.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4858 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0940)
= Exp(6.2446)
= $515.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.35% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $561.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 1.8530
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 153.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.71%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0025 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(6.0402)
= $419.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0025 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.8194)
= $336.76
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(6.6022)
= $736.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(6.3814)
= $590.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.02% per annum.
- NFLX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.54 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.