Stock Price Trends

Netflix Inc (NFLX) 

Netflix, Inc. is a leading American over-the-top content platform and production company, headquartered in Los Gatos, California. Established in 1997 by Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph, Netflix revolutionized the media landscape with its subscription-based streaming service, providing users access to an extensive library of films and television series, including critically acclaimed original content. As a pioneer in the streaming industry, the company continues to expand globally, leveraging innovative distribution strategies and investment in original programming to enhance viewer engagement and drive subscriber growth. With a commitment to transforming entertainment consumption, Netflix stands at the forefront of the digital media revolution.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.83% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 2, 2026 was $97.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.57 (31.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.63% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 2, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.40 (16.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 20, 2022
End date: October 21, 2025

a = 2.3326

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0861

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0861) – 1
= 41.12%

April 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3326 + 0.0015 × 413 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(3.1369)
= $23.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3326 + 0.0015 × 413 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(2.7924)
= $16.32

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3326 + 0.0015 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.0958)
= $163.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3326 + 0.0015 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(4.7514)
= $115.75

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.83% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 2, 2026 was $97.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.57 (31.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2025
End date: February 25, 2026

a = 9.5477

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0383

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.56%

August 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5477 + -0.0028 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.9625)
= $142.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5477 + -0.0028 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.8093)
= $122.65

February 25, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5477 + -0.0028 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.4414)
= $84.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5477 + -0.0028 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.2882)
= $72.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.63% per annum.
  • NFLX price at the close of March 2, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.40 (16.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.