Warner Music Group (WMG)
Warner Music Group Corp. is a leading global music entertainment company that operates through the acquisition, recording, and distribution of music. With a diverse portfolio of renowned artists and a vast catalog, WMG is at the forefront of the music industry, leveraging innovative technologies and data analytics to enhance audience engagement and revenue generation. The company has a proven track record of adapting to industry shifts while maintaining strong financial performance, positioning itself as a competitive player in the evolving landscape of music consumption. As it continues to expand its digital presence, WMG aims to capitalize on growth opportunities within streaming, licensing, and live events.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 117.53% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $31.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (7.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.69% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2025
End date: October 6, 2025
a = -0.2734
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0360
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 117.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0360) – 1
= 15.50%
May 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2734 + 0.0021 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.3077)
= $27.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2734 + 0.0021 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.1636)
= $23.66
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2734 + 0.0021 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.6292)
= $37.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2734 + 0.0021 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(3.4851)
= $32.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 117.53% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $31.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (7.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 4.5766
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0171) – 1
= 7.10%
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5766 + -0.0006 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(3.5573)
= $35.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5766 + -0.0006 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(3.4887)
= $32.74
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5766 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(3.5152)
= $33.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5766 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(3.4467)
= $31.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.69% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.