Walt Disney Company (DIS)
The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.15% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $112.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.68% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 1.4862
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0451
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0451) – 1
= 19.75%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4862 + 0.0018 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(4.4369)
= $84.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4862 + 0.0018 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(4.2566)
= $70.57
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4862 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(4.8661)
= $129.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4862 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(4.6859)
= $108.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.15% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $112.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 9.9143
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0129
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0129) – 1
= 5.29%
March 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9143 + -0.0029 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.8280)
= $124.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9143 + -0.0029 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.7765)
= $118.68
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9143 + -0.0029 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.7397)
= $114.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9143 + -0.0029 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.6881)
= $108.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.68% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.