Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc (NXST)
Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a broadcast television and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.78% per annum.
- NXST price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $172.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
- NXST price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.2379
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0784
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0784) – 1
= 36.83%
January 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2379 + -0.0001 × 994 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.2899)
= $198.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2379 + -0.0001 × 994 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(4.9763)
= $144.94
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2379 + -0.0001 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.2025)
= $181.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2379 + -0.0001 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(4.8890)
= $132.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.78% per annum.
- NXST price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $172.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.4048
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 21.97%
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4048 + 0.0010 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.0109)
= $150.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4048 + 0.0010 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(4.8123)
= $123.01
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4048 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.2524)
= $191.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4048 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.0538)
= $156.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
- NXST price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.