Intel Corporation (INTC)
Intel Corporation is an American multinational corporation and technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California, in Silicon Valley. It is the world's largest semiconductor chip manufacturer by revenue, and is the developer of the x86 series of microprocessors, the processors found in most personal computers (PCs).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.60% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $31.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.12 (27.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: April 3, 2024
a = 1.9870
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0803
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0803) – 1
= 37.87%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0011 × 1,128 + 2 × 0.0803)
= Exp(3.3508)
= $28.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0011 × 1,128 – 2 × 0.0803)
= Exp(3.0297)
= $20.69
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0011 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0803)
= Exp(3.9717)
= $53.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9870 + 0.0011 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0803)
= Exp(3.6505)
= $38.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.60% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $31.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.12 (27.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 3, 2024
a = 8.4219
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0664
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.42%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4219 + -0.0028 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.0689)
= $58.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4219 + -0.0028 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.8034)
= $44.85
July 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4219 + -0.0028 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.4991)
= $33.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4219 + -0.0028 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.2335)
= $25.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.