Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR)
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is an American, publicly traded company headquartered in Kirkland, Washington. The company provides power circuits for systems found in cloud computing, telecom infrastructures, automotive, industrial applications and consumer applications.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.72% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $702.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.96 (1.73%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.80% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2020
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 5.7051
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1388
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1388) – 1
= 74.21%
October 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7051 + 0.0003 × 519 + 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(6.1402)
= $464.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7051 + 0.0003 × 519 – 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(5.5851)
= $266.43
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7051 + 0.0003 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(6.4912)
= $659.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7051 + 0.0003 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(5.9361)
= $378.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.72% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $702.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.96 (1.73%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.4780
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1025
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.68%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4780 + 0.0011 × 1,233 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(6.0708)
= $433.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4780 + 0.0011 × 1,233 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(5.6608)
= $287.37
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4780 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(6.7382)
= $844.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4780 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(6.3282)
= $560.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.80% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.