Universal Display (OLED)
Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the research, development and commercialization of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in solid-state lighting and display applications. The company is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.98% per annum.
- OLED price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $175.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.17% per annum.
- OLED price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.53 (6.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: March 12, 2024
a = 3.4853
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0783
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0783) – 1
= 36.80%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4853 + 0.0010 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.7509)
= $115.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4853 + 0.0010 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.4376)
= $84.57
March 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4853 + 0.0010 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.3759)
= $216.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4853 + 0.0010 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.0625)
= $157.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.98% per annum.
- OLED price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $175.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 7.5308
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.79%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5308 + -0.0014 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(5.3027)
= $200.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5308 + -0.0014 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(5.1823)
= $178.10
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5308 + -0.0014 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(5.1106)
= $165.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5308 + -0.0014 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.9903)
= $146.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.17% per annum.
- OLED price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.53 (6.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.