Stock Price Trends

Universal Display (OLED)

Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the research, development and commercialization of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in solid-state lighting and display applications. The company is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.10% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $124.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $73.52 (37.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.40% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 4.0488

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0958

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.71%

April 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0488 + 0.0008 × 722 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.8060)
= $122.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0488 + 0.0008 × 722 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.4227)
= $83.32

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0488 + 0.0008 × 1,644 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.5282)
= $251.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0488 + 0.0008 × 1,644 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(5.1449)
= $171.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.10% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $124.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $73.52 (37.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.0642

b = -0.0018

s = 0.0863

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0863) – 1
= 41.25%

June 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,504 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0642 + -0.0018 × 1,504 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.5894)
= $267.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,504 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0642 + -0.0018 × 1,504 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.2440)
= $189.43

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0642 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.0244)
= $152.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0642 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(4.6790)
= $107.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.40% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.