Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets mixed-signal and analog semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 421.21% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.88 (25.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.54% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: June 6, 2024
a = -4.3665
b = 0.0045
s = 0.1173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 421.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1173) – 1
= 59.89%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.3665 + 0.0045 × 1,546 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(2.8610)
= $17.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.3665 + 0.0045 × 1,546 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(2.3917)
= $10.93
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.3665 + 0.0045 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(3.9059)
= $49.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.3665 + 0.0045 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(3.4366)
= $31.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 421.21% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.88 (25.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 8.6166
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0904
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0904) – 1
= 43.55%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6166 + -0.0028 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.8660)
= $47.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6166 + -0.0028 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.5045)
= $33.27
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6166 + -0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.6104)
= $36.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6166 + -0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0904)
= Exp(3.2488)
= $25.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.54% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.