Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets mixed-signal and analog semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.53% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $39.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.81 (121.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 354.69% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 6.2373
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1876
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1876) – 1
= 111.76%
August 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y570)
= Exp(a + b × X570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2373 + -0.0020 × 826 + 2 × 0.1876)
= Exp(4.9263)
= $137.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y570)
= Exp(a + b × X570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2373 + -0.0020 × 826 – 2 × 0.1876)
= Exp(4.1760)
= $65.10
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2373 + -0.0020 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.1876)
= Exp(3.1829)
= $24.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2373 + -0.0020 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.1876)
= Exp(2.4326)
= $11.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.53% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $39.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.81 (121.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: May 6, 2024
a = -4.0944
b = 0.0041
s = 0.1182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 354.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1182) – 1
= 60.44%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0944 + 0.0041 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(2.8885)
= $17.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0944 + 0.0041 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(2.4157)
= $11.20
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0944 + 0.0041 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(3.7183)
= $41.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0944 + 0.0041 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(3.2455)
= $25.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 354.69% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.