Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.60% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $24.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.03% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WOLF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 7.6026
b = -0.0024
s = 0.1388
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1388) – 1
= 74.23%
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6026 + -0.0024 × 1,198 + 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(4.9858)
= $146.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6026 + -0.0024 × 1,198 – 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(4.4306)
= $83.98
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6026 + -0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(3.4686)
= $32.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6026 + -0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1388)
= Exp(2.9134)
= $18.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.60% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $24.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 10.0680
b = -0.0038
s = 0.1050
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1050) – 1
= 52.20%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0680 + -0.0038 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(3.9373)
= $51.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0680 + -0.0038 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(3.5172)
= $33.69
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0680 + -0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(3.3366)
= $28.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0680 + -0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1050)
= Exp(2.9166)
= $18.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.03% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.