Stock Price Trends

Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.68% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $3.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.47 (11.86%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.82% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WOLF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 7.4957

b = -0.0031

s = 0.2387

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2387) – 1
= 159.85%

August 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4957 + -0.0031 × 840 + 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(5.3736)
= $215.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4957 + -0.0031 × 840 – 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(4.4187)
= $82.99

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4957 + -0.0031 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(2.4275)
= $11.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4957 + -0.0031 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(1.4726)
= $4.36

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.68% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $3.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.47 (11.86%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 10.4491

b = -0.0050

s = 0.2438

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2438) – 1
= 165.19%

December 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4491 + -0.0050 × 1,310 + 2 × 0.2438)
= Exp(4.3993)
= $81.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4491 + -0.0050 × 1,310 – 2 × 0.2438)
= Exp(3.4240)
= $30.69

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4491 + -0.0050 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2438)
= Exp(1.8292)
= $6.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4491 + -0.0050 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2438)
= Exp(0.8540)
= $2.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.82% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.