Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
Microchip Technology Inc. is a publicly-listed American corporation that manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog and Flash-IP integrated circuits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.19% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $93.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (25.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.42% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCHP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2020
End date: January 20, 2023
a = 4.3543
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0865
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0865) – 1
= 41.34%
November 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3543 + -0.0001 × 571 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.4603)
= $86.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3543 + -0.0001 × 571 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.1143)
= $61.21
January 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3543 + -0.0001 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.3674)
= $78.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3543 + -0.0001 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.0214)
= $55.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.19% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $93.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (25.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.5761
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0738
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.32%
April 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5761 + 0.0005 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.2695)
= $71.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5761 + 0.0005 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.9744)
= $53.22
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5761 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.6524)
= $104.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5761 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.3573)
= $78.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.42% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.