Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
Microchip Technology Inc. is a publicly-listed American corporation that manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog and Flash-IP integrated circuits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.67% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $45.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.79% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.14 (12.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCHP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 7.5096
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.66%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5096 + -0.0020 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.7015)
= $110.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5096 + -0.0020 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.4730)
= $87.62
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5096 + -0.0020 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.0421)
= $56.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5096 + -0.0020 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.8137)
= $45.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.67% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $45.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 18, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 19.4089
b = -0.0087
s = 0.0712
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0087) – 1
= -95.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0712) – 1
= 32.96%
February 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.4089 + -0.0087 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.3159)
= $74.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.4089 + -0.0087 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.0310)
= $56.32
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.4089 + -0.0087 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.7690)
= $43.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.4089 + -0.0087 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(3.4841)
= $32.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.79% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.14 (12.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.