Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
Microchip Technology Inc. is a publicly-listed American corporation that manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog and Flash-IP integrated circuits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $86.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.30 (18.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.49% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCHP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2020
End date: January 20, 2023
a = 4.3389
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0865
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0865) – 1
= 41.34%
November 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3389 + -0.0001 × 480 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.4556)
= $86.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3389 + -0.0001 × 480 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.1096)
= $60.92
January 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3389 + -0.0001 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.3627)
= $78.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3389 + -0.0001 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.0167)
= $55.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $86.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.30 (18.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.6160
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0708
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0708) – 1
= 32.74%
April 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6160 + 0.0005 × 981 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.2586)
= $70.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6160 + 0.0005 × 981 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(3.9754)
= $53.27
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6160 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.6891)
= $108.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6160 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.4059)
= $81.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.49% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.