Smart Global Holdings Inc (SGH)
SMART Global Holdings, Inc. designs and manufactures electronic products focused on the areas of memory and computing technology. The company is headquartered in Newark, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.32% per annum.
- SGH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $18.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.24 (7.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.41% per annum.
- SGH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.95 (13.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SGH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: May 17, 2023
a = 3.7915
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1609
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1609) – 1
= 90.33%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7915 + -0.0007 × 642 + 2 × 0.1609)
= Exp(3.6691)
= $39.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7915 + -0.0007 × 642 – 2 × 0.1609)
= Exp(3.0255)
= $20.60
May 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7915 + -0.0007 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.1609)
= Exp(3.0962)
= $22.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7915 + -0.0007 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.1609)
= Exp(2.4526)
= $11.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.32% per annum.
- SGH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $18.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.24 (7.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2022
End date: October 12, 2023
a = 1.5411
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1563) – 1
= 86.90%
June 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5411 + 0.0010 × 1,149 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(3.0107)
= $20.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5411 + 0.0010 × 1,149 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(2.3853)
= $10.86
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5411 + 0.0010 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(3.4829)
= $32.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5411 + 0.0010 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(2.8575)
= $17.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.41% per annum.
- SGH price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.95 (13.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.