Stock Price Trends

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) 

Amazon.com, Inc. is an American multinational technology company which focuses on e-commerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. It is one of the Big Five companies in the U.S. information technology industry, along with Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook. The company has been referred to as one of the most influential economic and cultural forces in the world, as well as the world's most valuable brand.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.51% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $228.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.63% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMZN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 3.3630

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0697

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.14%

November 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y683)
= Exp(a + b × X683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3630 + 0.0012 × 987 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(4.6437)
= $103.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y683)
= Exp(a + b × X683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3630 + 0.0012 × 987 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(4.3650)
= $78.65

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3630 + 0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.6104)
= $273.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3630 + 0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.3317)
= $206.80

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.51% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $228.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 2.0609

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0320

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.67%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0609 + 0.0019 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.1839)
= $178.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0609 + 0.0019 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.0558)
= $156.92

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0609 + 0.0019 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.5524)
= $257.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0609 + 0.0019 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.4243)
= $226.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.63% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.