Stock Price Trends

Kohls Corp (KSS)

Kohl's Corporation is a retail company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.21% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $23.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.84 (8.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.59% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023

a = 4.7095

b = -0.0011

s = 0.1643

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1643) – 1
= 92.97%

February 19, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7095 + -0.0011 × 648 + 2 × 0.1643)
= Exp(4.3480)
= $77.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7095 + -0.0011 × 648 – 2 × 0.1643)
= Exp(3.6906)
= $40.07

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7095 + -0.0011 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.1643)
= Exp(3.2678)
= $26.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7095 + -0.0011 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.1643)
= Exp(2.6104)
= $13.61

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.21% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $23.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.84 (8.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024

a = 2.0956

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1057

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1057) – 1
= 52.65%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0956 + 0.0006 × 1,397 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.2095)
= $24.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0956 + 0.0006 × 1,397 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(2.7866)
= $16.23

May 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0956 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.4854)
= $32.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0956 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.0624)
= $21.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.59% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.