Macy’s Inc (M)
Macy's, Inc., an omnichannel retail organization, operates stores, websites, and mobile apps under the Macy's, Bloomingdale's and bluemercury brands. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.72% per annum.
- M price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $19.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.03 (26.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 265.34% per annum.
- M price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.49 (7.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of M price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.9242
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1454) – 1
= 78.87%
August 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9242 + -0.0008 × 829 + 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(3.5395)
= $34.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9242 + -0.0008 × 829 – 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(2.9580)
= $19.26
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9242 + -0.0008 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(2.8609)
= $17.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9242 + -0.0008 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(2.2794)
= $9.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.72% per annum.
- M price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $19.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.03 (26.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: April 1, 2024
a = -3.2116
b = 0.0035
s = 0.1130
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 265.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1130) – 1
= 57.17%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2116 + 0.0035 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(2.5591)
= $12.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2116 + 0.0035 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(2.1070)
= $8.22
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2116 + 0.0035 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(3.3507)
= $28.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2116 + 0.0035 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(2.8985)
= $18.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 265.34% per annum.
- M price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.49 (7.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.